The Role of Monthly Updated Climate Forecasts in Improving Intraseasonal Water Allocation

Abstract

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning (e.g., water allocation) and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. However, the water allocated based on the climate forecasts issued at the beginning of the season needs to be revised using the updated climate forecasts throughout the season. In this study, reservoir inflow forecasts downscaled from monthly updated precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 forced with ?persisted? SSTs were used to improve both seasonal and intraseasonal water allocation during the October?February season for the Angat reservoir, a multipurpose system, in the Philippines. Monthly updated reservoir inflow forecasts are ingested into a reservoir simulation model to allocate water for multiple uses by ensuring a high probability of meeting the end-of-season target storage that is required to meet the summer (March?May) demand. The forecast-based allocation is combined with the observed inflows during the season to estimate storages, spill, and generated hydropower from the system. The performance of the reservoir is compared under three scenarios: forecasts issued at the beginning of the season, monthly updated forecasts during the season, and use of climatological values. Retrospective reservoir analysis shows that the operation of a reservoir by using monthly updated inflow forecasts reduces the spill considerably by increasing the allocation for hydropower during above-normal-inflow years. During below-normal-inflow years, monthly updated streamflow forecasts could be effectively used for ensuring enough water for the summer season by meeting the end-of-season target storage. These analyses suggest the importance of performing experimental reservoir analyses to understand the potential challenges and opportunities in improving seasonal and intraseasonal water allocation by using real-time climate forecasts.