Prediction of Spring Elbe Discharge Based on Stable Teleconnections with Winter Global Temperature and Precipitation

Abstract

The predictability of Elbe streamflow anomalies during spring is examined using previous winter sea surface temperature (SST), temperature over land (TT), and precipitation (PP) anomalies. Based on running correlation analysis, the authors identify several regions where the spring streamflow anomalies are stable correlated with SST, TT, and PP anomalies from the previous winter. During the period 1902?71 the Elbe spring streamflow is stable correlated with previous winter PP anomalies from its catchment area, with TT anomalies from the Black Sea?Caspian Sea region, northwestern Europe, and northern Canada as well as with SST anomalies from the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and several regions of the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. An index based on winter SST, TT, and PP anomalies from these regions is highly significantly correlated with spring streamflow anomalies during this period. Based on SST, TT, and PP anomalies from stable correlated regions, a forecast scheme is developed and applied to predict spring streamflow anomalies during the last decades. The prediction based on this statistical scheme represents a marked improvement relative to the forecast based on teleconnection indices that are traditionally used for streamflow prediction.