On the Relationship between North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk

Abstract

In the recent literature, considerable attention has been paid to the relationship between climate signals and tropical cyclone activity. Much of the research has focused on Atlantic Ocean basin activity while less attention has been given to landfall frequency and the geographic distribution of risk to life and property. However, recent active seasons like 2004 and 2005 and the resulting damage and economic loss have generated significant interest in the relationship between climate and landfall risk. This study focuses on sea surface temperatures (SST) and examines modulation of landfall activity occurring in anomalously warm-SST seasons. The objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of warmer ocean conditions on U.S. landfall risk. The study is broken into two parts??statistical and physical. The statistical analysis categorizes historical hurricane seasons as either warm or cool and then estimates shifts in landfall frequency under these two climate modes. The analysis is carried out for overall U.S. landfall risk and then for logical subregions along the U.S. coastline. The climatological behavior for warm-SST conditions is developed across the intensity spectrum, from weak tropical storms to major hurricanes, using wind speed as an intensity measure. The analysis suggests that landfall risk is sensitive to SST conditions but that sensitivity varies by region and intensity. The uncertainty associated with these estimates is discussed. The physical analysis is carried out to understand better why landfall risk is not affected uniformly along the U.S. coastline and to reinforce the reasonability of the statistical results. The study involves a detailed examination of the complete life cycle of historical storms. Results indicate that storms making landfall along the East Coast have different genesis and intensification characteristics relative to storms making landfall along the Gulf Coast. As SSTs warm, the genesis pattern shifts, greatly influencing regional landfall risk. Further, hurricane landfalls may react not only to warm-SST conditions, but also to the effect of ocean temperature anomalies on the atmosphere?s general circulation. There are implications that complex feedback mechanisms play a role in modulating the probability of landfall, especially from certain parts of the Atlantic basin. Such physical theories provide added confidence in statistical estimates of elevated risk for certain breeds of tropical cyclones.