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    Evaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;1995:;volume( 010 ):;issue: 003::page 498
    Author:
    Olson, David A.
    ,
    Junker, Norman W.
    ,
    Korty, Brian
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0498:EOYOQP>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The National Meteorological Center (NMC) initiated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and an intensive QPF verification program in 1960. These forecast products have evolved from a manual effort, relying on extensive forecast experience to one that placed much greater reliance on the interpretation and modification of numerical models. Verification graphs show steady improvements in forecast accuracy, especially for the longer-range forecasts, which in this context am those in the 24?60-h range. During the 1960s the Threat Score (TS) for day-2 forecasts for 1 in or more of precipitation averaged approximately 0.07. During recent years, that score has nearly doubled, and the 36?60-h period forecast in 1993 had a TS comparable to that for the 12?36-h period during the 1960s. Improvement in accuracy is probably related to a number of diverse factors including improved numerical models, increased forecaster knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of the operational models, and an increased understanding of precipitation processes. The verification results have been used to track individual and group progress.
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      Evaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4165134
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    contributor authorOlson, David A.
    contributor authorJunker, Norman W.
    contributor authorKorty, Brian
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:50:46Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:50:46Z
    date copyright1995/09/01
    date issued1995
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-2806.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4165134
    description abstractThe National Meteorological Center (NMC) initiated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and an intensive QPF verification program in 1960. These forecast products have evolved from a manual effort, relying on extensive forecast experience to one that placed much greater reliance on the interpretation and modification of numerical models. Verification graphs show steady improvements in forecast accuracy, especially for the longer-range forecasts, which in this context am those in the 24?60-h range. During the 1960s the Threat Score (TS) for day-2 forecasts for 1 in or more of precipitation averaged approximately 0.07. During recent years, that score has nearly doubled, and the 36?60-h period forecast in 1993 had a TS comparable to that for the 12?36-h period during the 1960s. Improvement in accuracy is probably related to a number of diverse factors including improved numerical models, increased forecaster knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of the operational models, and an increased understanding of precipitation processes. The verification results have been used to track individual and group progress.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleEvaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume10
    journal issue3
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0498:EOYOQP>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage498
    journal lastpage511
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;1995:;volume( 010 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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