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contributor authorOlson, David A.
contributor authorJunker, Norman W.
contributor authorKorty, Brian
date accessioned2017-06-09T14:50:46Z
date available2017-06-09T14:50:46Z
date copyright1995/09/01
date issued1995
identifier issn0882-8156
identifier otherams-2806.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4165134
description abstractThe National Meteorological Center (NMC) initiated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and an intensive QPF verification program in 1960. These forecast products have evolved from a manual effort, relying on extensive forecast experience to one that placed much greater reliance on the interpretation and modification of numerical models. Verification graphs show steady improvements in forecast accuracy, especially for the longer-range forecasts, which in this context am those in the 24?60-h range. During the 1960s the Threat Score (TS) for day-2 forecasts for 1 in or more of precipitation averaged approximately 0.07. During recent years, that score has nearly doubled, and the 36?60-h period forecast in 1993 had a TS comparable to that for the 12?36-h period during the 1960s. Improvement in accuracy is probably related to a number of diverse factors including improved numerical models, increased forecaster knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of the operational models, and an increased understanding of precipitation processes. The verification results have been used to track individual and group progress.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleEvaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC
typeJournal Paper
journal volume10
journal issue3
journal titleWeather and Forecasting
identifier doi10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0498:EOYOQP>2.0.CO;2
journal fristpage498
journal lastpage511
treeWeather and Forecasting:;1995:;volume( 010 ):;issue: 003
contenttypeFulltext


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