| contributor author | Elsner, J. B. | |
| contributor author | Schmertmann, C. P. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:47:59Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:47:59Z | |
| date copyright | 1993/09/01 | |
| date issued | 1993 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-2704.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4164001 | |
| description abstract | This study shows that hindcasts of seasonal numbers of intense Atlantic hurricanes made using a nonlinear statistical model are superior to those made by linear statistical models previously described in the literature. A fully cross-validated Poisson model achieves an increase of nearly 40% in hindcast skill when compared to a fully cross-validated linear model. Improvements are most evident for years with relatively large numbers of intense hurricanes. It is suggested that a significant improvement in forecast skill is possible with the Poisson model. A prediction for the 1993 season is made, and calls for two intense hurricanes to visit the Atlantic basin. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Improving Extended-Range Seasonal Predictions of Intense Atlantic Hurricane Activity | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 8 | |
| journal issue | 3 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0345:IERSPO>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 345 | |
| journal lastpage | 351 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;1993:;volume( 008 ):;issue: 003 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext | |