Improving Extended-Range Seasonal Predictions of Intense Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Abstract

This study shows that hindcasts of seasonal numbers of intense Atlantic hurricanes made using a nonlinear statistical model are superior to those made by linear statistical models previously described in the literature. A fully cross-validated Poisson model achieves an increase of nearly 40% in hindcast skill when compared to a fully cross-validated linear model. Improvements are most evident for years with relatively large numbers of intense hurricanes. It is suggested that a significant improvement in forecast skill is possible with the Poisson model. A prediction for the 1993 season is made, and calls for two intense hurricanes to visit the Atlantic basin.