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    On Risk Based Design of Complex Engineering Systems: An Analytical Extreme Event Framework

    Source: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering:;2015:;volume( 001 ):;issue: 001::page 11002
    Author:
    Golbayani, Hami
    ,
    Kazerounian, Kazem
    DOI: 10.1115/1.4029142
    Publisher: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
    Abstract: In this work, a novel analytical framework is proposed for the riskbased design of complex engineering systems. The risk baseddesign process is the reverse process of risk propagation that entails the optimum allocation of the desired risk of failure of the system to all of its components. This paper studies the challenges in the design process of complex systems, the mathematical modeling of their topological architecture, and their unique behaviors. These characteristics make it impossible for the designer to use the common reliability and risk methodologies in the design process. The fundamental development of this work is an analytical upper bound for the distribution of risk of failure in the subsystem or element level. This upper bound satisfies the subadditivity condition of a coherent measure of risk. Additionally, its simplicity and low computational cost provide an appropriate framework as a fundamental building block for the riskbased design of complex systems. The proposed methodology is applied to three examples with insignificant desired probability of failure and its accuracy is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating its effectiveness and value.
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      On Risk Based Design of Complex Engineering Systems: An Analytical Extreme Event Framework

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    • ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering

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    contributor authorGolbayani, Hami
    contributor authorKazerounian, Kazem
    date accessioned2017-05-09T01:14:23Z
    date available2017-05-09T01:14:23Z
    date issued2015
    identifier issn2332-9017
    identifier otherRISK_1_1_011002.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/156857
    description abstractIn this work, a novel analytical framework is proposed for the riskbased design of complex engineering systems. The risk baseddesign process is the reverse process of risk propagation that entails the optimum allocation of the desired risk of failure of the system to all of its components. This paper studies the challenges in the design process of complex systems, the mathematical modeling of their topological architecture, and their unique behaviors. These characteristics make it impossible for the designer to use the common reliability and risk methodologies in the design process. The fundamental development of this work is an analytical upper bound for the distribution of risk of failure in the subsystem or element level. This upper bound satisfies the subadditivity condition of a coherent measure of risk. Additionally, its simplicity and low computational cost provide an appropriate framework as a fundamental building block for the riskbased design of complex systems. The proposed methodology is applied to three examples with insignificant desired probability of failure and its accuracy is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating its effectiveness and value.
    publisherThe American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
    titleOn Risk Based Design of Complex Engineering Systems: An Analytical Extreme Event Framework
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume1
    journal issue1
    journal titleASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering
    identifier doi10.1115/1.4029142
    journal fristpage11002
    journal lastpage11002
    treeASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering:;2015:;volume( 001 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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