Estimating Local Decision Making Behavior in Complex Evolutionary Systems

Abstract

Research in systems engineering and design is increasingly focused on complex sociotechnical systems whose structures are not directly controlled by the designers, but evolve endogenously as a result of decisions and behaviors of selfdirected entities. Examples of such systems include smart electric grids, Internet, smart transportation networks, and open source product development communities. To influence the structure and performance of such systems, it is crucial to understand the local decisions that result in observed system structures. This paper presents three approaches to estimate the local behaviors and preferences in complex evolutionary systems, modeled as networks, from its structure at different time steps. The first approach is based on the generalized preferential attachment model of network evolution. In the second approach, statistical regressionbased models are used to estimate the local decisionmaking behaviors from consecutive snapshots of the system structure. In the third approach, the entities are modeled as rational decisionmaking agents who make linking decisions based on the maximization of their payoffs. Within the decisioncentric framework, the multinomial logit choice model is adopted to estimate the preferences of decisionmaking nodes. The approaches are illustrated and compared using an example of the autonomous system (AS) level Internet. The approaches are generally applicable to a variety of complex systems that can be modeled as networks. The insights gained are expected to direct researchers in choosing the most applicable estimation approach to get the nodelevel behaviors in the context of different scenarios.