Prediction of Relative Motion and Probability of Contact Between FPSO and Shuttle Tanker in Tandem Offloading Operation

Abstract

Excessive relative motions between Floating Production Storage Offloading Unit (FPSO), and tanker, which are termed as excessive surging and yawing events, are identified as the “failure prone situation” in tandem offloading. These events have contributed to the initiation of tanker drive-off in most collision incidents that happened in the North Sea in recent years. To estimate and reduce the probability of excessive surging and yawing events in tandem offloading, a simulation-based approach, which is based on a state-of-the-art time-domain simulation code SIMO, is presented in this paper. A typical North Sea FPSO and a DP shuttle tanker simulation models are setup in SIMO and calibrated by full-scale measurements. The simulated relative distance and relative heading between FPSO and tanker are analyzed by fitting their extreme values into statistical models which give out probabilities of excessive surging and yawing events. Sensitivity studies are performed to pinpoint contributions from various technical and operational factors. Measures to minimize the occurrence of excessive surging and yawing events are identified in design and operational perspectives.