Engineering Risk Assessment in Manufacturing Products with Short Time-to-Market Windows

Abstract

This paper establishes the concept of manufacturing risk assessment based on design features. It also presents a methodology for assessing risks associated with producing feature-rich products with short time-to-market windows. Product design features are classified as inherent and value-added. Inherent features are functionalities of a product that provide a core benefit to the user. Without inherent features, a product cannot exist in the marketplace. Value-added design features augment the customer-perceived value of a product. A product with value-added features provides the manufacturer with a competitive and lucrative edge in the market place. To quantify risks associated with making a product, manufacturing is divided into three subprocesses: reliability, inherent feature augmentation, and value-added tolerance capabilities. Reliability estimates the availability to manufacture the selected product consistently; feature augmentation quantifies risks associated with incorporating inherent design features; and value-added tolerance capabilities measures the consistency in manufacturing value-added design. An example of a leading-edge technology product with a short life cycle is provided. Because of a short time-to-market window coupled with constraints in environmental variables, the bootstrap method is used to estimate key statistical parameters. Once manufacturing risks have been identified and evaluated, the next logical step for future work will be to couple these estimates with uncertainties involved in financing and marketing the product in question.