Operational Risk Evaluation of an Ice Feature Impact

Abstract

The risk of impact by a particular ice feature in the vicinity of an offshore structure or stationary vessel is of concern during operations. A general method is presented for calculating the risk of an impact in terms of the joint probability distribution of the forecast positions and velocities of the ice feature. A simple stochastic model of the motion of an ice feature is introduced for which the joint probability distribution of ice feature position and velocity can be determined as a function of time. The risk of an impact is presented for this model of the motion of an ice feature. Predictions of the distributions of the time until impact and the drift speed upon impact are also presented and discussed. Predictions are compared against results of a Monte Carlo simulation.