Abstract: o understand the mechanisms responsible for the secondary eyewall replacement cycles and associated intensity changes in intense tropical cyclones (TCs), two numerical experiments are conducted in this study with the Weather ...

Abstract: The primary goal of this study is to explore the factors that might influence the intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with secondary eyewall replacement. Concentric eyewall structures in TCs with and ...

Abstract: he ensemble transform with rescaling (ETR) method has been used to produce fast-growing components of analysis error in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The rescaling mask contained in the ETR method ...

Abstract: wo perturbation generation schemes, the ensemble transformation with rescaling (ETR) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are compared for the NCEP operational environment for the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). ...

Abstract: AbstractThe Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) is being extended from 16 to 35 days to cover the subseasonal period, bridging weather and seasonal forecasts. In this study, the impact of SST forcing on the extended-range ...

Abstract: AbstractA new version of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, v11) is tested and compared with the operational version (v10) in a 2-yr parallel run. The breeding-based scheme with ensemble transformation and rescaling ...

Abstract: upertyphoon Megi was the most intense tropical cyclone (TC) of 2010. Megi tracked westward through the western North Pacific and crossed the Philippines on 18 October. Two days later, Megi made a sharp turn to the north, ...

Abstract: AbstractThe National Centers for Environmental Prediction have generated an 18-yr (1999?2016) subseasonal (weeks 3 and 4) reforecast to support the Climate Prediction Center?s operational mission. To create this reforecast, ...