YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Weather and Forecasting
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Weather and Forecasting
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    Probabilistic Evaluation of the Dynamics and Prediction of Supertyphoon Megi (2010)

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2013:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 006::page 1562
    Author:
    Qian, Chuanhai
    ,
    Zhang, Fuqing
    ,
    Green, Benjamin W.
    ,
    Zhang, Jin
    ,
    Zhou, Xiaqiong
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-12-00121.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: upertyphoon Megi was the most intense tropical cyclone (TC) of 2010. Megi tracked westward through the western North Pacific and crossed the Philippines on 18 October. Two days later, Megi made a sharp turn to the north, an unusual track change that was not forecast by any of the leading operational centers. This failed forecast was a consequence of exceptionally large uncertainty in the numerical guidance?including the operational ensemble of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)?at various lead times before the northward turn. This study uses The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble dataset to examine the uncertainties in the track forecast of the ECMWF operational ensemble. The results show that Megi's sharp turn is sensitive to its own movement in the early period, the size and structure of the storm, the strength and extent of the western Pacific subtropical high, and an approaching eastward-moving midlatitude trough. In particular, a larger TC (in addition to having a stronger beta effect) may lead to a stronger erosion of the southwestern extent of the subtropical high, which will subsequently lead to an earlier and sharper northward turn.
    • Download: (4.013Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      Probabilistic Evaluation of the Dynamics and Prediction of Supertyphoon Megi (2010)

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231638
    Collections
    • Weather and Forecasting

    Show full item record

    contributor authorQian, Chuanhai
    contributor authorZhang, Fuqing
    contributor authorGreen, Benjamin W.
    contributor authorZhang, Jin
    contributor authorZhou, Xiaqiong
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:36:12Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:36:12Z
    date copyright2013/12/01
    date issued2013
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-87916.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231638
    description abstractupertyphoon Megi was the most intense tropical cyclone (TC) of 2010. Megi tracked westward through the western North Pacific and crossed the Philippines on 18 October. Two days later, Megi made a sharp turn to the north, an unusual track change that was not forecast by any of the leading operational centers. This failed forecast was a consequence of exceptionally large uncertainty in the numerical guidance?including the operational ensemble of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)?at various lead times before the northward turn. This study uses The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble dataset to examine the uncertainties in the track forecast of the ECMWF operational ensemble. The results show that Megi's sharp turn is sensitive to its own movement in the early period, the size and structure of the storm, the strength and extent of the western Pacific subtropical high, and an approaching eastward-moving midlatitude trough. In particular, a larger TC (in addition to having a stronger beta effect) may lead to a stronger erosion of the southwestern extent of the subtropical high, which will subsequently lead to an earlier and sharper northward turn.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleProbabilistic Evaluation of the Dynamics and Prediction of Supertyphoon Megi (2010)
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume28
    journal issue6
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-12-00121.1
    journal fristpage1562
    journal lastpage1577
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2013:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian