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    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2017:;volume( 032 ):;issue: 005::page 1989
    Author:
    Zhou, Xiaqiong;Zhu, Yuejian;Hou, Dingchen;Luo, Yan;Peng, Jiayi;Wobus, Richard
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0023.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractA new version of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, v11) is tested and compared with the operational version (v10) in a 2-yr parallel run. The breeding-based scheme with ensemble transformation and rescaling (ETR) used in the operational GEFS is replaced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to generate initial ensemble perturbations. The global medium-range forecast model and the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis used as the initial conditions are upgraded to the GFS 2015 implementation version. The horizontal resolution of GEFS increases from Eulerian T254 (~52 km) for the first 8 days of the forecast and T190 (~70 km) for the second 8 days to semi-Lagrangian T574 (~34 km) and T382 (~52 km), respectively. The sigma pressure hybrid vertical layers increase from 42 to 64 levels. The verification of geopotential height, temperature, and wind fields at selected levels shows that the new GEFS significantly outperforms the operational GEFS up to days 8?10 except for an increased warm bias over land in the extratropics. It is also found that the parallel system has better reliability in the short-range probability forecasts of precipitation during warm seasons, but no clear improvement in cold seasons. There is a significant degradation of TC track forecasts at days 6?7 during the 2012?14 TC seasons over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. This degradation is most likely a sampling issue from a low number of TCs during these three TC seasons. The results for an extended verification period (2011?14) and the recent two hurricane seasons (2015 and 2016) are generally positive. The new GEFS became operational at NCEP on 2 December 2015.
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    contributor authorZhou, Xiaqiong;Zhu, Yuejian;Hou, Dingchen;Luo, Yan;Peng, Jiayi;Wobus, Richard
    date accessioned2018-01-03T11:03:19Z
    date available2018-01-03T11:03:19Z
    date copyright7/19/2017 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2017
    identifier otherwaf-d-17-0023.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://138.201.223.254:8080/yetl1/handle/yetl/4246650
    description abstractAbstractA new version of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, v11) is tested and compared with the operational version (v10) in a 2-yr parallel run. The breeding-based scheme with ensemble transformation and rescaling (ETR) used in the operational GEFS is replaced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to generate initial ensemble perturbations. The global medium-range forecast model and the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis used as the initial conditions are upgraded to the GFS 2015 implementation version. The horizontal resolution of GEFS increases from Eulerian T254 (~52 km) for the first 8 days of the forecast and T190 (~70 km) for the second 8 days to semi-Lagrangian T574 (~34 km) and T382 (~52 km), respectively. The sigma pressure hybrid vertical layers increase from 42 to 64 levels. The verification of geopotential height, temperature, and wind fields at selected levels shows that the new GEFS significantly outperforms the operational GEFS up to days 8?10 except for an increased warm bias over land in the extratropics. It is also found that the parallel system has better reliability in the short-range probability forecasts of precipitation during warm seasons, but no clear improvement in cold seasons. There is a significant degradation of TC track forecasts at days 6?7 during the 2012?14 TC seasons over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. This degradation is most likely a sampling issue from a low number of TCs during these three TC seasons. The results for an extended verification period (2011?14) and the recent two hurricane seasons (2015 and 2016) are generally positive. The new GEFS became operational at NCEP on 2 December 2015.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume32
    journal issue5
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-17-0023.1
    journal fristpage1989
    journal lastpage2004
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2017:;volume( 032 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian