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A Test Bed for New Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Approaches in the Western United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Streamflow forecasting is critical to water resources management in the western United States. Yet, despite the passage of almost 50 years since the development of the first computerized hydrologic simulation models and ...
Correcting Errors in Streamflow Forecast Ensemble Mean and Spread
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: When hydrological models are used for probabilistic streamflow forecasting in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) framework, the deterministic components of the approach can lead to errors in the estimation of forecast ...
Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Based on Index Station Percentiles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Operational hydrologic models are typically calibrated using meteorological inputs derived from retrospective station data that are commonly not available in real time. Inconsistencies between the calibration and (generally ...
How Essential is Hydrologic Model Calibration to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Hydrologic model calibration is usually a central element of streamflow forecasting based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method. Evaluation measures of forecast errors such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) are ...
Evaluation of Precipitation Products for Global Hydrological Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Accurate precipitation data are critical for hydrologic prediction, yet outside the developed world in situ networks are so sparse as to make alternative methods of precipitation estimation essential. Several such alternative ...
Adjusting Flood Peak Frequency Changes to Account for Climate Change Impacts in the Western United States
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: One consistent projection for the western United States has been for increasing peak streamflow as the global climate warms. Although past studies have characterized some aspects of future streamflow projections, this ...
Informing Hydrometric Network Design for Statistical Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hydrometric network design approach is developed for enhancing statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts. The approach employs gridded, model-simulated water balance variables as predictors in equations generated via ...
Benchmarking of a Physically Based Hydrologic Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe concepts of model benchmarking, model agility, and large-sample hydrology are becoming more prevalent in hydrologic and land surface modeling. As modeling systems become more sophisticated, these concepts have ...
An Experiment on Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Management Using Monthly Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he use of probabilistic forecasts is necessary to take into account uncertainties and allow for optimal risk-based decisions in streamflow forecasting at monthly to seasonal lead times. Such probabilistic forecasts have ...
An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: easonal streamflow prediction skill can derive from catchment initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) and from the future seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) used to produce the hydrological forecasts. Although much effort ...