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    A Test Bed for New Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Approaches in the Western United States

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2006:;volume( 087 ):;issue: 012::page 1699
    Author:
    Wood, Andrew W.
    ,
    Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Streamflow forecasting is critical to water resources management in the western United States. Yet, despite the passage of almost 50 years since the development of the first computerized hydrologic simulation models and over 30 years since the development of hydrologic ensemble forecast methods, the prevalent method used for forecasting seasonal stream-flow in the western United States remains the regression of spring and summer streamflow volume on spring snowpack and/or the previous winter's accumulated precipitation. A recent retrospective analysis have shown that the skill of the regression-based forecasts have not improved in the last 40 years, despite large investments in science and technology related to the monitoring and assessment of the land surface and in climate forecasting. We describe an experimental streamflow forecast system for the western United States that applies a modern macroscale land surface model (akin to those now used in numerical weather prediction and climate models) to capture hydrologic states (soil moisture and snow) at the time of forecast, incorporates data assimilation methods to improve estimates of initial state, and uses a range of climate prediction ensembles to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and associated hydrologic states for lead times of up to one year. The forecast system is intended to be a real-time test bed for evaluating new seasonal streamflow forecast methods. Experience with the forecast system is illustrated using results from the 2004/05 forecast season, in which an evolving drought in the Pacific Northwest diverged strikingly from extreme snow accumulations to the south. We also discuss how the forecast system relates to ongoing changes in seasonal streamflow forecast methods in the two U.S. operational agencies that have major responsibility for seasonal streamflow forecasts in the western United States.
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      A Test Bed for New Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Approaches in the Western United States

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    contributor authorWood, Andrew W.
    contributor authorLettenmaier, Dennis P.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:42:59Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:42:59Z
    date copyright2006/12/01
    date issued2006
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-72865.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4214915
    description abstractStreamflow forecasting is critical to water resources management in the western United States. Yet, despite the passage of almost 50 years since the development of the first computerized hydrologic simulation models and over 30 years since the development of hydrologic ensemble forecast methods, the prevalent method used for forecasting seasonal stream-flow in the western United States remains the regression of spring and summer streamflow volume on spring snowpack and/or the previous winter's accumulated precipitation. A recent retrospective analysis have shown that the skill of the regression-based forecasts have not improved in the last 40 years, despite large investments in science and technology related to the monitoring and assessment of the land surface and in climate forecasting. We describe an experimental streamflow forecast system for the western United States that applies a modern macroscale land surface model (akin to those now used in numerical weather prediction and climate models) to capture hydrologic states (soil moisture and snow) at the time of forecast, incorporates data assimilation methods to improve estimates of initial state, and uses a range of climate prediction ensembles to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and associated hydrologic states for lead times of up to one year. The forecast system is intended to be a real-time test bed for evaluating new seasonal streamflow forecast methods. Experience with the forecast system is illustrated using results from the 2004/05 forecast season, in which an evolving drought in the Pacific Northwest diverged strikingly from extreme snow accumulations to the south. We also discuss how the forecast system relates to ongoing changes in seasonal streamflow forecast methods in the two U.S. operational agencies that have major responsibility for seasonal streamflow forecasts in the western United States.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Test Bed for New Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Approaches in the Western United States
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume87
    journal issue12
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699
    journal fristpage1699
    journal lastpage1712
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2006:;volume( 087 ):;issue: 012
    contenttypeFulltext
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