Abstract: statistical model of northeastern Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) is developed and used to estimate hurricane landfall rates along the coast of Mexico. Mean annual landfall rates for 1971?2014 are compared with mean ...

Abstract: An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) represents the climate response to SST forcing as well as internal variability or ?noise.? Signal-to-noise analysis ...

Abstract: The scaling of U.S. tornado frequency with Enhanced Fujita (EF) rated intensity is examined for the range EF1–EF3. Previous work has found that tornado frequency decreases exponentially with increasing EF rating and that ...

Abstract: A novel noise filter is used to effectively reduce internal atmospheric variability in the air?sea fluxes of a coupled model. This procedure allows for a test of the impact of the internal atmospheric variability on ENSO ...

Abstract: This paper introduces the average predictability time (APT) for characterizing the overall predictability of a system. APT is the integral of a predictability measure over all lead times. The underlying predictability ...

Abstract: This paper proposes a new method for diagnosing predictability on multiple time scales without time averaging. The method finds components that maximize the average predictability time (APT) of a system, where APT is defined ...

Abstract: Warm season river flows in central Asia, which play an important role in local water resources and agriculture, are shown to be closely related to the regional-scale climate variability of the preceding cold season. The ...

Abstract: basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common ...