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RISCoupled Ocean–Atmosphere Forecasts in the Presence of Climate Drift
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Two different coupled atmosphere?ocean GCMs are used to forecast SST anomalies with lead times of up to one year. The initialization procedure does not balance the ocean and atmosphere components, nor is the coupled model ...
Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Storms Using Coupled GCM Integrations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System, based on ensembles of 200-day coupled GCM integrations, contains tropical disturbances that are referred to as model tropical storms in the present paper. Model tropical storms display ...
Tropical Atlantic SST Prediction with Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCMs
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Variations in tropical Atlantic SST are an important factor in seasonal forecasts in the region and beyond. An analysis is given of the capabilities of the latest generation of coupled GCM seasonal forecast systems to ...
Warm Pool Physics in a Coupled GCM
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The physics of the Indo?Pacific warm pool are investigated using a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model. The model, developed at the Max-Planck-Institut fair Meteorologic, Hamburg, does not employ a flux ...
The Curious Case of the EL Niño That Never Happened: A Perspective from 40 Years of Progress in Climate Research and Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: orty years ago, Klaus Wyrtki of the University of Hawaii launched an ?El Niño Watch? expedition to the eastern equatorial Pacific to document oceanographic changes that were expected to develop during the onset of an El ...
An Ensemble Generation Method for Seasonal Forecasting with an Ocean–Atmosphere Coupled Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Seasonal forecasts are subject to various types of errors: amplification of errors in oceanic initial conditions, errors due to the unpredictable nature of the synoptic atmospheric variability, and coupled model error. ...
Two Time Scales for The Price Of One (Almost)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled ocean?atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was ...
Did the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Model Outperform Statistical ENSO Forecast Models over the Last 15 Years?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts since 1997 with ensembles of a coupled ocean?atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was ...
Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Given that over the course of the next 10?30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions ...