Abstract: AbstractProbabilistic forecasts, which communicate forecast uncertainties, enable users to make better weather-based decisions. Using precipitation and numerous instability indices from the deterministic model HARMONIE?AROME ...

Abstract: For a long time, observations have indicated that the Kuroshio in the North Pacific Ocean displays bimodal meandering behavior off the southern coast of Japan. For the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic Ocean, weakly and ...

Abstract: Using nonseasonal altimeter data and SST observations of the North Atlantic, and more specifically the Gulf Stream region, dominant patterns of variability are determined using multivariate time series analyses. A statistically ...

Abstract: Using a 20-yr ECMWF ensemble reforecast dataset of total precipitation and a 20-yr dataset of a dense precipitation observation network in the Netherlands, a comparison is made between the raw ensemble output, Bayesian ...

Abstract: AbstractDynamical seasonal forecasts are afflicted with biases, including seasonal ensemble precipitation forecasts from the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system 5 (SEAS5). In this study, biases have been corrected using ...

Abstract: The derivation and verification of logistic regression equations for the (conditional) probability of (severe) thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October) in the Netherlands is described. For 12 ...

Abstract: Extreme summer temperatures can cause severe societal impacts. Early warnings can aid societal preparedness, but reliable forecasts for extreme temperatures at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales are still missing. ...