Abstract: A central problem in the detection of long-term trends in upper stratospheric ozone from orbiting remote sensors involves the separation of instrument drifts from true geophysical changes. Periodic flights of a Solar ...

Abstract: The authors develop and apply a model that uses hurricane-experience data in counties along the U.S. hurricane coast to give annual exceedence probabilities to maximum tropical cyclone wind events. The model uses a maximum ...

Abstract: Time series of annual hurricane counts are examined using a changepoint analysis. The approach simulates posterior distributions of the Poisson-rate parameter using Gibbs sampling. A posterior distribution is a distribution ...

Abstract: Tornadoes are a rare event, with the period of reliable record-keeping for many locations small compared to the likelihood of occurrence. The total number of recorded tornadoes varies a great deal from year to year. However, ...

Abstract: As a follow-up to a recent paper by the authors in which various methodologies for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting were compared, it is shown here that the skill scores for linear regression and logistic ...

Abstract: Twenty-four-hour probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) for accumulations exceeding thresholds of 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10 in. are produced for 154 meteorological stations over the eastern and central regions ...

Abstract: Changes in the frequency of U.S. landfalling hurricanes with respect to the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle are assessed. Ninety-eight years (1900?97) of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are classified, using sea ...