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    Effect of El Niño on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Revisited

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;1998:;volume( 079 ):;issue: 011::page 2477
    Author:
    Bove, Mark C.
    ,
    O'Brien, James J.
    ,
    Eisner, James B.
    ,
    Landsea, Chris W.
    ,
    Niu, Xufeng
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2477:EOENOO>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Changes in the frequency of U.S. landfalling hurricanes with respect to the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle are assessed. Ninety-eight years (1900?97) of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are classified, using sea surface temperature anomaly data from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as occurring during an El Niño (anomalously warm tropical Pacific waters), La Niña (anomalously cold tropical Pacific waters), or neither (neutral). The mean and variance of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are determined for each ENSO phase. Each grouping is then tested for Poisson distribution using a chi-squared test. Resampling using a ?bootstrap? technique is then used to determine the 5% and 95% confidence limits of the results. Last, the frequency of major U.S. landfalling hurricanes (sustained winds of 96 kt or more) with respect to ENSO phase is assessed empirically. The results indicated that El Niño events show a reduction in the probability of a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while La Niña shows an increase in the chance of a U.S. hurricane strike. Quantitatively, the probability of two or more landfalling U.S. hurricanes during an El Niño is 28%, of two or more landfalls during neutral conditions is 48%, and of two or more landfalls during La Niña is 66%. The frequencies of landfalling major hurricanes show similar results. The probability of one or more major hurricane landfall during El Niño is 23% but is 58% during neutral conditions and 63% during La Niña.
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      Effect of El Niño on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Revisited

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4161554
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    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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    contributor authorBove, Mark C.
    contributor authorO'Brien, James J.
    contributor authorEisner, James B.
    contributor authorLandsea, Chris W.
    contributor authorNiu, Xufeng
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:42:14Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:42:14Z
    date copyright1998/11/01
    date issued1998
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-24838.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4161554
    description abstractChanges in the frequency of U.S. landfalling hurricanes with respect to the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle are assessed. Ninety-eight years (1900?97) of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are classified, using sea surface temperature anomaly data from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as occurring during an El Niño (anomalously warm tropical Pacific waters), La Niña (anomalously cold tropical Pacific waters), or neither (neutral). The mean and variance of U.S. landfalling hurricanes are determined for each ENSO phase. Each grouping is then tested for Poisson distribution using a chi-squared test. Resampling using a ?bootstrap? technique is then used to determine the 5% and 95% confidence limits of the results. Last, the frequency of major U.S. landfalling hurricanes (sustained winds of 96 kt or more) with respect to ENSO phase is assessed empirically. The results indicated that El Niño events show a reduction in the probability of a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while La Niña shows an increase in the chance of a U.S. hurricane strike. Quantitatively, the probability of two or more landfalling U.S. hurricanes during an El Niño is 28%, of two or more landfalls during neutral conditions is 48%, and of two or more landfalls during La Niña is 66%. The frequencies of landfalling major hurricanes show similar results. The probability of one or more major hurricane landfall during El Niño is 23% but is 58% during neutral conditions and 63% during La Niña.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleEffect of El Niño on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Revisited
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume79
    journal issue11
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2477:EOENOO>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage2477
    journal lastpage2482
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;1998:;volume( 079 ):;issue: 011
    contenttypeFulltext
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