YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    A Dynamic Probability Model of Hurricane Winds in Coastal Counties of the United States

    Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology:;2001:;volume( 040 ):;issue: 005::page 853
    Author:
    Jagger, Thomas
    ,
    Elsner, James B.
    ,
    Niu, Xufeng
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0853:ADPMOH>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The authors develop and apply a model that uses hurricane-experience data in counties along the U.S. hurricane coast to give annual exceedence probabilities to maximum tropical cyclone wind events. The model uses a maximum likelihood estimator to determine a linear regression for the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull distribution for maximum wind speed. Model simulations provide quantiles for the probabilities at prescribed hurricane intensities. When the model is run in the raw climatological mode, median probabilities compare favorably with probabilities from the National Hurricane Center?s risk analysis program ?HURISK? model. When the model is run in the conditional climatological mode, covariate information in the form of regression equations for the distributional parameters allows probabilities to be estimated that are conditioned on climate factors. Changes to annual hurricane probabilities with respect to a combined effect of a La Niña event and a negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation mapped from Texas to North Carolina indicate an increased likelihood of hurricanes along much of the coastline. Largest increases are noted along the central Gulf coast.
    • Download: (253.7Kb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      A Dynamic Probability Model of Hurricane Winds in Coastal Counties of the United States

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4148392
    Collections
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology

    Show full item record

    contributor authorJagger, Thomas
    contributor authorElsner, James B.
    contributor authorNiu, Xufeng
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:07:52Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:07:52Z
    date copyright2001/05/01
    date issued2001
    identifier issn0894-8763
    identifier otherams-12992.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4148392
    description abstractThe authors develop and apply a model that uses hurricane-experience data in counties along the U.S. hurricane coast to give annual exceedence probabilities to maximum tropical cyclone wind events. The model uses a maximum likelihood estimator to determine a linear regression for the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull distribution for maximum wind speed. Model simulations provide quantiles for the probabilities at prescribed hurricane intensities. When the model is run in the raw climatological mode, median probabilities compare favorably with probabilities from the National Hurricane Center?s risk analysis program ?HURISK? model. When the model is run in the conditional climatological mode, covariate information in the form of regression equations for the distributional parameters allows probabilities to be estimated that are conditioned on climate factors. Changes to annual hurricane probabilities with respect to a combined effect of a La Niña event and a negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation mapped from Texas to North Carolina indicate an increased likelihood of hurricanes along much of the coastline. Largest increases are noted along the central Gulf coast.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Dynamic Probability Model of Hurricane Winds in Coastal Counties of the United States
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume40
    journal issue5
    journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0853:ADPMOH>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage853
    journal lastpage863
    treeJournal of Applied Meteorology:;2001:;volume( 040 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian