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RISMeasures of the Utility of Probabilistic Predictions in Cost-Loss Ratio Decision Situations in which Knowledge of the Cost-Loss Ratios is Incomplete
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Comparative operational evaluation of probabilistic prediction procedures in cost-loss ratio decision situations in which the evaluator's knowledge of the cost-loss ratio is expressed in probabilistic terms is considered. ...
Hedging and Skill Scores for Probability Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An individual skill score (SS) and a collective skill score (CSS) are examined to determine whether these scoring or improper. The SS and the CSS are both standardized versions of the Brier, or probability, score (PS) and ...
Hedging and the Mode of Expression of Weather Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper briefly examines the nature of hedging and its role in the formulation of categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Hedging is defined in terms of the difference between a forecaster's judgment and his forecast. ...
General Decompositions of MSE-Based Skill Scores: Measures of Some Basic Aspects of Forecast Quality
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Skill scores defined as measures of relative mean square error?and based on standards of reference representing climatology, persistence, or a linear combination of climatology and persistence?are decomposed. Two decompositions ...
Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part II. N-State Situation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Scalar and vector partitions of the probability score (PS) in N-state (N > 2) situations are described and compared. In N-state, as well as in two-state (N = 2), situations these partitions provide similar, but not equivalent ...