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    Measures of the Utility of Probabilistic Predictions in Cost-Loss Ratio Decision Situations in which Knowledge of the Cost-Loss Ratios is Incomplete

    Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology:;1969:;volume( 008 ):;issue: 006::page 863
    Author:
    Murphy, Allan H.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0863:MOTUOP>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Comparative operational evaluation of probabilistic prediction procedures in cost-loss ratio decision situations in which the evaluator's knowledge of the cost-loss ratio is expressed in probabilistic terms is considered. First, the cost-loss ratio decision situation is described in a utility framework and, then, measures of the expected-utility of probabilistic predictions are formulated. Second, a class of expected-utility measures, the beta measures, in which the evaluator's knowledge of the cost-loss ratio is expressed in terms of a beta distribution, are described. Third, the beta measures are utilized to compare two prediction procedures on the basis of a small sample of predictions. The results indicate the importance, for comparative operational evaluation, of utilizing measures which provide a suitable description of the evaluator's knowledge. In particular, the use of the probability score, a measure equivalent to the uniform measure (which is a special beta measure), in decision situations in which the uniform distribution does not provide a suitable description of the evaluator's knowledge, may yield misleading results. Finally, the results are placed in proper perspective by describing several possible extensions to this study and by indicating the importance of undertaking such studies in actual operational situations.
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      Measures of the Utility of Probabilistic Predictions in Cost-Loss Ratio Decision Situations in which Knowledge of the Cost-Loss Ratios is Incomplete

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4221878
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    contributor authorMurphy, Allan H.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:05:05Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:05:05Z
    date copyright1969/12/01
    date issued1969
    identifier issn0021-8952
    identifier otherams-7913.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4221878
    description abstractComparative operational evaluation of probabilistic prediction procedures in cost-loss ratio decision situations in which the evaluator's knowledge of the cost-loss ratio is expressed in probabilistic terms is considered. First, the cost-loss ratio decision situation is described in a utility framework and, then, measures of the expected-utility of probabilistic predictions are formulated. Second, a class of expected-utility measures, the beta measures, in which the evaluator's knowledge of the cost-loss ratio is expressed in terms of a beta distribution, are described. Third, the beta measures are utilized to compare two prediction procedures on the basis of a small sample of predictions. The results indicate the importance, for comparative operational evaluation, of utilizing measures which provide a suitable description of the evaluator's knowledge. In particular, the use of the probability score, a measure equivalent to the uniform measure (which is a special beta measure), in decision situations in which the uniform distribution does not provide a suitable description of the evaluator's knowledge, may yield misleading results. Finally, the results are placed in proper perspective by describing several possible extensions to this study and by indicating the importance of undertaking such studies in actual operational situations.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleMeasures of the Utility of Probabilistic Predictions in Cost-Loss Ratio Decision Situations in which Knowledge of the Cost-Loss Ratios is Incomplete
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume8
    journal issue6
    journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0863:MOTUOP>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage863
    journal lastpage873
    treeJournal of Applied Meteorology:;1969:;volume( 008 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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