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    Hedging and the Mode of Expression of Weather Forecasts

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;1978:;volume( 059 ):;issue: 004::page 371
    Author:
    Murphy, Allan H.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1978)059<0371:HATMOE>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: This paper briefly examines the nature of hedging and its role in the formulation of categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Hedging is defined in terms of the difference between a forecaster's judgment and his forecast. It is then argued that a judgment cannot accurately reflect the forecaster's true state of knowledge unless the uncertainties inherent in the formulation of this judgment are described in a qualitative and/or quantitative manner. Since categorical forecasting does not provide the forecaster with a means of making his forecasts correspond to such judgments, a categorical forecast is generally a hedge. Probabilistic forecasting, on the other hand, presents the forecaster with an opportunity to eliminate hedging by making his (probabilistic) forecasts correspond exactly to his judgments. Thus, contrary to popular belief, the desire to eliminate hedging should encourage forecasters to express more rather than fewer forecasts in probabilistic terms.
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      Hedging and the Mode of Expression of Weather Forecasts

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    contributor authorMurphy, Allan H.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:39:40Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:39:40Z
    date copyright1978/04/01
    date issued1978
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-23868.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4160476
    description abstractThis paper briefly examines the nature of hedging and its role in the formulation of categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Hedging is defined in terms of the difference between a forecaster's judgment and his forecast. It is then argued that a judgment cannot accurately reflect the forecaster's true state of knowledge unless the uncertainties inherent in the formulation of this judgment are described in a qualitative and/or quantitative manner. Since categorical forecasting does not provide the forecaster with a means of making his forecasts correspond to such judgments, a categorical forecast is generally a hedge. Probabilistic forecasting, on the other hand, presents the forecaster with an opportunity to eliminate hedging by making his (probabilistic) forecasts correspond exactly to his judgments. Thus, contrary to popular belief, the desire to eliminate hedging should encourage forecasters to express more rather than fewer forecasts in probabilistic terms.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleHedging and the Mode of Expression of Weather Forecasts
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume59
    journal issue4
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0477(1978)059<0371:HATMOE>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage371
    journal lastpage373
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;1978:;volume( 059 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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