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RISMultiscale Models with Moisture and Systematic Strategies for Superparameterization
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The accurate parameterization of moist convection presents a major challenge for the accurate prediction of weather and climate through numerical models. Superparameterization is a promising recent alternative strategy for ...
New Multiscale Models and Self-Similarity in Tropical Convection
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: One of the unexplained striking features of tropical convection is the observed statistical self-similarity in clusters, superclusters, and intraseasonal oscillations through complex multiscale processes ranging from the ...
Equatorial Convectively Coupled Waves in a Simple Multicloud Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Linear stability results for the multicloud model recently developed by the authors on an equatorial beta plane are presented here. The linearized equations, about a realistic radiative?convective equilibrium (RCE) are ...
A Simple Multicloud Parameterization for Convectively Coupled Tropical Waves. Part I: Linear Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Recent observational analysis reveals the central role of three multicloud types, congestus, stratiform, and deep convective cumulus clouds, in the dynamics of large-scale convectively coupled Kelvin waves, westward-propagating ...
Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part I: Coarse-Grained Predictions in a Simple Ocean Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the long-range coarse-grained predictive skill in a perfect-model environment. Central to the scheme is the notion that long-range forecasting involves regimes; ...
A Multiscale Model for the Intraseasonal Impact of the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he eastward-propagating Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) typically exhibits complex behavior during its passage over the Maritime Continent, sometimes slowly propagating eastward and other times stalling and even terminating ...
Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part II: Model Error in Coarse-Grained Markov Models with Application to Ocean-Circulation Regimes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictive skill and model error in imperfect climate models for long-range forecasting. Here, of key importance is a climate equilibrium consistency test for ...
Quantifying Uncertainty for Climate Change and Long-Range Forecasting Scenarios with Model Errors. Part I: Gaussian Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nformation theory provides a concise systematic framework for measuring climate consistency and sensitivity for imperfect models. A suite of increasingly complex physically relevant linear Gaussian models with time periodic ...
Filtering Turbulent Sparsely Observed Geophysical Flows
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Filtering sparsely turbulent signals from nature is a central problem of contemporary data assimilation. Here, sparsely observed turbulent signals from nature are generated by solutions of two-layer quasigeostrophic models ...
Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractTropical convection associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) is typically organized by an eastward-moving synoptic-scale convective envelope with numerous embedded westward-moving mesoscale ...