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RISAssessment of MJO Predictability for Boreal Winter with Various Statistical and Dynamical Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The predictability of intraseasonal variation in the tropics is assessed in the present study by using various statistical and dynamical models with rigorous and fair measurements. For a fair comparison, the real-time ...
ENSO’s Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific–North American Region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific?North American sector during three phases of ENSO in boreal winter (December?February) is investigated using IVT values calculated from the Climate ...
Improvement of Initialized Decadal Predictions over the North Pacific Ocean by Systematic Anomaly Pattern Correction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he prediction skill and errors in surface temperature anomalies in initialized decadal hindcasts from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are assessed using six ocean?atmosphere coupled models ...
Statistical–Dynamical Seasonal Forecast for Tropical Cyclones Affecting New York State
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study attempts, for the first time, to predict the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting New York State (NYS), as part of the effort of the New York State Resiliency Institute for Storms and Emergencies ...
Modulation of North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity by Three Phases of ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Tropical Pacific Ocean warming has been separated into two modes based on the spatial distribution of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly: an east Pacific warming (EPW) and a central Pacific warming (CPW). ...
Sensitivity of MJO Simulation and Predictability to Sea Surface Temperature Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the simulation and predictability of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University atmospheric general circulation model (SNU AGCM). ...
A Physical Basis for the Probabilistic Prediction of the Accumulated Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy in the Western North Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he relationship between El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical storm (TS) activity over the western North Pacific Ocean is examined for the period from 1981 to 2010. In El Niño years, TS genesis locations are ...
Predictability and Prediction Skill of the MJO in Two Operational Forecasting Systems
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he authors examine the predictability and prediction skill of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) of two ocean?atmosphere coupled forecast systems of ECMWF [Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS)] and NCEP ...
Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skills of Near-Surface Air Temperature in the CMIP5 Decadal Hindcast Experiments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study explores the seasonal-to-interannual near-surface air temperature (TAS) prediction skills of state-of-the-art climate models that were involved in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ...
Boreal Winter MJO Teleconnection in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 with the Unified Convection Parameterization
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, influences weather and climate in the extratropics through atmospheric teleconnection. In this study, two simulations using the ...