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    Assessment of MJO Predictability for Boreal Winter with Various Statistical and Dynamical Models

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2010:;volume( 023 ):;issue: 009::page 2368
    Author:
    Kang, In-Sik
    ,
    Kim, Hye-Mi
    DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3288.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The predictability of intraseasonal variation in the tropics is assessed in the present study by using various statistical and dynamical models with rigorous and fair measurements. For a fair comparison, the real-time multivariate Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) (RMM) index, proposed by Wheeler and Hendon, is used as a predictand for all models. The statistical models include the models based on a multilinear regression, a wavelet analysis, and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The prediction limits (correlation skill of 0.5) of statistical models for RMM1 (RMM2) index are at days 16?17 (14?15) for the multiregression model, whereas they are at days 8?10 (9?12) for the wavelet- and SSA-based models. The poor predictability of the wavelet and SSA models is related to the tapering problem for a half-length of the time window before the initial condition. To assess the dynamical predictability, long-term serial prediction experiments with a prediction interval of every 5 days are carried out with Seoul National University (SNU) AGCM and coupled general circulation model (CGCM) for 26 (1980?2005) boreal winters. The prediction limits of RMM1 and RMM2 occur at around 20 days for both AGCM and CGCM. These results demonstrate that the skills of dynamical models used in this study are better than those of the three statistical predictions. The dynamical and statistical predictions are combined using a multimodel ensemble method. The combination provides a superior skill to any of the statistical and dynamical predictions, with a prediction limit of 22?24 days. The dependencies of prediction skill on the initial phase and amplitude of the MJO are also investigated.
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      Assessment of MJO Predictability for Boreal Winter with Various Statistical and Dynamical Models

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    contributor authorKang, In-Sik
    contributor authorKim, Hye-Mi
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:35:00Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:35:00Z
    date copyright2010/05/01
    date issued2010
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-70424.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4212204
    description abstractThe predictability of intraseasonal variation in the tropics is assessed in the present study by using various statistical and dynamical models with rigorous and fair measurements. For a fair comparison, the real-time multivariate Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) (RMM) index, proposed by Wheeler and Hendon, is used as a predictand for all models. The statistical models include the models based on a multilinear regression, a wavelet analysis, and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The prediction limits (correlation skill of 0.5) of statistical models for RMM1 (RMM2) index are at days 16?17 (14?15) for the multiregression model, whereas they are at days 8?10 (9?12) for the wavelet- and SSA-based models. The poor predictability of the wavelet and SSA models is related to the tapering problem for a half-length of the time window before the initial condition. To assess the dynamical predictability, long-term serial prediction experiments with a prediction interval of every 5 days are carried out with Seoul National University (SNU) AGCM and coupled general circulation model (CGCM) for 26 (1980?2005) boreal winters. The prediction limits of RMM1 and RMM2 occur at around 20 days for both AGCM and CGCM. These results demonstrate that the skills of dynamical models used in this study are better than those of the three statistical predictions. The dynamical and statistical predictions are combined using a multimodel ensemble method. The combination provides a superior skill to any of the statistical and dynamical predictions, with a prediction limit of 22?24 days. The dependencies of prediction skill on the initial phase and amplitude of the MJO are also investigated.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAssessment of MJO Predictability for Boreal Winter with Various Statistical and Dynamical Models
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume23
    journal issue9
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/2010JCLI3288.1
    journal fristpage2368
    journal lastpage2378
    treeJournal of Climate:;2010:;volume( 023 ):;issue: 009
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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