Search
CSV
RISA Test of Emergent Constraints on Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity Using a Calibrated Single-Model Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA calibrated single-model ensemble (SME) derived from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1, is used to test two hypothesized emergent constraints on cloud feedback and equilibrium climate sensitivity ...
An Efficient Stochastic Bayesian Approach to Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation for Climate Model Predictions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: One source of uncertainty for climate model predictions arises from the fact that climate models have been optimized to reproduce observational means. To quantify the uncertainty resulting from a realistic range of model ...
Using Single-Forcing GCM Simulations to Reconstruct and Interpret Quaternary Climate Change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he long-term climate variations of the Quaternary were primarily influenced by concurrent changes in Earth?s orbit, greenhouse gases, and ice sheets. However, because climate changes over the coming century will largely ...
Truncation Error Based Mesh Optimization
Publisher: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Abstract: Truncation error is used to drive mesh adaptation in order to reduce the discretization error in solutions to a variety of 1D and 2D flow problems. The adaptation is performed using r-adaptation to move the mesh nodes in ...
Error Reduction and Convergence in Climate Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Although climate models have steadily improved their ability to reproduce the observed climate, over the years there has been little change to the wide range of sensitivities exhibited by different models to a doubling of ...
Multidataset Study of Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model with Bayesian Stochastic Inversion and Multicriteria Method
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study evaluates the ability of Bayesian stochastic inversion (BSI) and multicriteria (MC) methods to search for the optimal parameter sets of the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM) using prescribed forcing to simulate ...
The Importance of Atmospheric Dynamics in the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Climate Response to Changes in the Earth’s Orbit
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Milankovitch proposed that variations in the earth?s orbit cause climate variability through a local thermodynamic response to changes in insolation. This hypothesis is tested by examining variability in an atmospheric ...
Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)?based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. ...
Truncation Error Based Mesh Optimization
Publisher: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Abstract: Truncation error is used to drive mesh adaptation in order to reduce the discretization error in solutions to a variety of 1D and 2D flow problems. The adaptation is performed using r-adaptation to move the mesh nodes in ...
Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection
Publisher: American Meteorological Society