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RISStatistical Inference in Canonical Correlation Analyses Exemplified by the Influence of North Atlantic SST on European Climate
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: To encourage the use of the standard parametric test procedures in canonical correlation analysis, the tests are applied to investigate the influence of northern Atlantic SST on the Euro?Atlantic atmospheric circulation. ...
A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local ...
A Bayesian Assessment of Climate Change Using Multimodel Ensembles. Part I: Global Mean Surface Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A Bayesian approach is applied to the observed global surface air temperature (SAT) changes using multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations ...
A Bayesian Assessment of Climate Change Using Multimodel Ensembles. Part II: Regional and Seasonal Mean Surface Temperatures
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A Bayesian approach is applied to the observed regional and seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) changes using single-model ensembles (SMEs) with the ECHO-G model and multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of the Intergovernmental ...
Comments on “Twentieth-Century Trends of Arctic Precipitation from Observational Data and a Climate Model Simulation”
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis and Predictability of Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nsemble weather forecasting has been operational for two decades now. However, the related uncertainty analysis in terms of probabilistic postprocessing still focuses on single variables, grid points, or stations. Inevitable ...
A Matérn-Based Multivariate Gaussian Random Process for a Consistent Model of the Horizontal Wind Components and Related Variables
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe integration of physical relationships into stochastic models is of major interest, for example, in data assimilation. Here, a multivariate Gaussian random field formulation is introduced that represents the ...
Improving Seasonal Forecasting in the Low Latitudes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Seasonal forecast of climate anomalies holds the prospect of improving agricultural planning and food security, particularly in the low latitudes where rainfall represents a limiting factor in agrarian production. Present-day ...
On the Orthogonalization of Bred Vectors
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The key to the improvement of the quality of ensemble forecasts assessing the inherent flow uncertainties is the choice of the initial ensemble perturbations. To generate such perturbations, the breeding of growing modes ...
Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: orecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for ...