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RISFog Prediction from a Multimodel Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new multivariable-based diagnostic fog-forecasting method has been developed at NCEP. The selection of these variables, their thresholds, and the influences on fog forecasting are discussed. With the inclusion of the ...
A Dynamical Performance-Ranking Method for Predicting Individual Ensemble Member Performance and Its Application to Ensemble Averaging
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study proposes a dynamical performance-ranking method (called the Du?Zhou ranking method) to predict the relative performance of individual ensemble members by assuming the ensemble mean is a good estimation of the ...
Numerical Simulation of a Dilute Particulate Flow (Laminar) Over Tube Banks
Publisher: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Abstract: This paper presents an investigation of numerical simulation for a dilute particle laden flow (laminar) over in-line tube banks. Particles behavior of two different sizes and density (100 μm ...
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Quantitative Precipitation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The impact of initial condition uncertainty (ICU) on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) is examined for a case of explosive cyclogenesis that occurred over the contiguous United States and produced widespread, ...
Removal of Distortion Error from an Ensemble Forecast
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Large errors developed by 24 h during a 25-member ensemble forecast of quantity of precipitation. The errors could be attributed to an insufficient northeastward motion of the area of precipitation and excessive amounts. ...
The Dependence of Ensemble Dispersion on Analysis–Forecast Systems: Implications to Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Precipitation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The impact of differences in analysis?forecast systems on dispersion of an ensemble forecast is examined for a case of cyclogenesis. Changes in the dispersion properties between two 25-member ensemble forecasts with different ...
Measure of Forecast Challenge and Predictability Horizon Diagram Index for Ensemble Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractResponding to the call for new verification methods in a recent editorial in Weather and Forecasting, this study proposed two new verification metrics to quantify the forecast challenges that a user faces in ...
A Comparison between a Generalized Beta–Advection Model and a Classical Beta–Advection Model in Predicting and Understanding Unusual Typhoon Tracks in Eastern China Seas
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: total of 163 tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the eastern China seas during 1979?2011 with four types of tracks: left turning, right turning, straight moving, and irregular. The left-turning type is unusual and hard to ...
Reply to “Comments on ‘Incorporating the Effects of Moisture into a Dynamical Parameter: Moist Vorticity and Moist Divergence’”
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: athematical derivation, meteorological justification, and comparison to model direct precipitation forecasts are the three main concerns recently raised by Schultz and Spengler about moist divergence (MD) and moist vorticity ...
Anomaly-Based Weather Analysis versus Traditional Total-Field-Based Weather Analysis for Depicting Regional Heavy Rain Events
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: lthough the use of anomaly fields in the forecast process has been shown to be useful and has caught forecasters? attention, current short-range (1?3 days) weather analyses and forecasts are still predominantly total-field ...