Abstract: The influence of topography on fluid instability has been studied in literature both in the beta-channel approximation and on the sphere mainly using normal modes. A different approach recently proposed is based on the ...

Abstract: It is shown that a numerical weather prediction system with variable resolution, higher in the early forecast range and lower afterward, provides more skilful forecasts than a system with constant resolution. Results ...

Abstract: Ensemble forecasting is a feasible method to integrate a deterministic forecast with an estimate of the probability distribution of atmospheric states. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the ...

Abstract: The 51-member TL399L62 ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS51) is compared with a lagged ensemble system based on the six most recent ECMWF TL799L91 forecasts (LAG6). The EPS51 and LAG6 systems are compared to two 6-member ...

Abstract: The accuracy and the potential economic value of categorical and probabilistic forecasts of discrete events are discussed. Accuracy is assessed applying known measures of forecast accuracy, and the potential economic value ...

Abstract: No abstract available.

Abstract: Linear instability analysis is applied to study the role of barotropic dynamics in the evolution of blocking events during winter 1990/91. Finite-time interval instabilities (i.e., nonnormal-mode structures defined as the ...

Abstract: Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of deviations from the ensemble mean was used to validate the statistical properties of TL159 51-member ensemble forecasts run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

Abstract: In this paper the suitability of ECMWF forecasts for hydrological applications is evaluated. This study focuses on three spatial scales: the upper Danube (which is upstream of Bratislava, Slovakia), the entire Danube ...