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RISThe Sensitivity of the Numerical Simulation of the Southwest Monsoon Boundary Layer to the Choice of PBL Turbulence Parameterization in MM5
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Summertime convection over Arizona typically begins in the early afternoon and continues into the night. This suggests that the evolution of the daytime planetary boundary layer is important to the development of Arizona ...
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The skill and potential value of fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) ensembles are evaluated for short-range (24 h) probabilistic quantitative ...
Using the Second-Generation GEFS Reforecasts to Predict Ceiling, Visibility, and Aviation Flight Category
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis study is an aviation-based application of NOAA?s second-generation medium-range Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R; i.e., hindcast or retrospective forecast) dataset. The study produced a ...
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results ...
Value of Human-Generated Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Weather
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: During the spring of 2003, the Storm Prediction Center, in partnership with the National Severe Storms Laboratory, conducted an experiment to explore the value of having operational severe weather forecasters involved in ...
Conditional Probability Estimation for Significant Tornadoes Based on Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Profiles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ecent literature has identified several supercell/tornado forecast parameters in common use that are operationally beneficial in assessing environments supportive of supercell tornadoes. These parameters are utilized in ...
A Real-Time Online Data Product that Automatically Detects Easterly Gap-Flow Events and Precipitation Type in the Columbia River Gorge
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA real-time, hourly updated, online graphical data product that displays the depth and strength of easterly gap flow in the Columbia River Gorge using a 915-MHz Doppler wind profiler is presented. During precipitation ...
Probabilistic Forecast Guidance for Severe Thunderstorms Based on the Identification of Extreme Phenomena in Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ith the advent of convection-allowing NWP models (CAMs) comes the potential for new forms of forecast guidance. While CAMs lack the required resolution to simulate many severe phenomena associated with convection (e.g., ...
Next-Day Convection-Allowing WRF Model Guidance: A Second Look at 2-km versus 4-km Grid Spacing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced convection-allowing forecasts from a single deterministic ...
Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast ...