Conditional Probability Estimation for Significant Tornadoes Based on Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Profiles

Abstract

ecent literature has identified several supercell/tornado forecast parameters in common use that are operationally beneficial in assessing environments supportive of supercell tornadoes. These parameters are utilized in the computation of tornado forecast guidance such as the significant tornado parameter (STP), a dimensionless parameter developed at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) that applies a subjectively chosen scale. The goal of this research is to determine if useful logistic regression equations can be developed to estimate the conditional probability of supercell tornadoes that are categorized as level 2 or stronger on the enhanced Fujita scale (EF) when a similar set of environmental background parameters is applied as variables. A large database of Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis soundings in proximity to a representative sample of tornadic and nontornadic supercells over the central and eastern United States, a number of which were associated with EF2 or stronger tornadoes, was used to compute supercell tornado forecast parameters similar to those in the original version of STP. Three logistic regression equations were developed from this database, two of which are described and analyzed in detail. Statistical verification for both equations was accomplished using independent data from 2008 in proximity to supercell storms identified by staff at SPC. A recent version of the STP was utilized as a comparison diagnostic to accomplish part of the statistical verification. The results of this research suggest that output from both logistic regression equations can provide valuable guidance in a probabilistic sense, when adjustments are made for the ongoing convective mode. Case studies presented also suggest that this guidance can provide information complementary to STP in severe weather situations with potential for supercell tornadoes.