Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble MembershipSource: Weather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 001::page 263Author:Schwartz, Craig S.
,
Kain, John S.
,
Weiss, Steven J.
,
Xue, Ming
,
Bright, David R.
,
Kong, Fanyou
,
Thomas, Kevin W.
,
Levit, Jason J.
,
Coniglio, Michael C.
,
Wandishin, Matthew S.
DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222267.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast covering approximately three-fourths of the continental United States. Each member used the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model core, which was initialized at 2100 UTC, ran for 33 h, and resolved convection explicitly. Different initial condition (IC), lateral boundary condition (LBC), and physics perturbations were introduced in 4 of the 10 ensemble members, while the remaining 6 members used identical ICs and LBCs, differing only in terms of microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations. This study focuses on precipitation forecasts from the ensemble. The ensemble forecasts reveal WRF-ARW sensitivity to MP and PBL schemes. For example, over the 7-week experiment, the Mellor?Yamada?Janji? PBL and Ferrier MP parameterizations were associated with relatively high precipitation totals, while members configured with the Thompson MP or Yonsei University PBL scheme produced comparatively less precipitation. Additionally, different approaches for generating probabilistic ensemble guidance are explored. Specifically, a ?neighborhood? approach is described and shown to considerably enhance the skill of probabilistic forecasts for precipitation when combined with a traditional technique of producing ensemble probability fields.
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contributor author | Schwartz, Craig S. | |
contributor author | Kain, John S. | |
contributor author | Weiss, Steven J. | |
contributor author | Xue, Ming | |
contributor author | Bright, David R. | |
contributor author | Kong, Fanyou | |
contributor author | Thomas, Kevin W. | |
contributor author | Levit, Jason J. | |
contributor author | Coniglio, Michael C. | |
contributor author | Wandishin, Matthew S. | |
date accessioned | 2017-06-09T16:32:50Z | |
date available | 2017-06-09T16:32:50Z | |
date copyright | 2010/02/01 | |
date issued | 2010 | |
identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
identifier other | ams-69758.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4211462 | |
description abstract | During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast covering approximately three-fourths of the continental United States. Each member used the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model core, which was initialized at 2100 UTC, ran for 33 h, and resolved convection explicitly. Different initial condition (IC), lateral boundary condition (LBC), and physics perturbations were introduced in 4 of the 10 ensemble members, while the remaining 6 members used identical ICs and LBCs, differing only in terms of microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations. This study focuses on precipitation forecasts from the ensemble. The ensemble forecasts reveal WRF-ARW sensitivity to MP and PBL schemes. For example, over the 7-week experiment, the Mellor?Yamada?Janji? PBL and Ferrier MP parameterizations were associated with relatively high precipitation totals, while members configured with the Thompson MP or Yonsei University PBL scheme produced comparatively less precipitation. Additionally, different approaches for generating probabilistic ensemble guidance are explored. Specifically, a ?neighborhood? approach is described and shown to considerably enhance the skill of probabilistic forecasts for precipitation when combined with a traditional technique of producing ensemble probability fields. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 25 | |
journal issue | 1 | |
journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/2009WAF2222267.1 | |
journal fristpage | 263 | |
journal lastpage | 280 | |
tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 001 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |