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    Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 001::page 263
    Author:
    Schwartz, Craig S.
    ,
    Kain, John S.
    ,
    Weiss, Steven J.
    ,
    Xue, Ming
    ,
    Bright, David R.
    ,
    Kong, Fanyou
    ,
    Thomas, Kevin W.
    ,
    Levit, Jason J.
    ,
    Coniglio, Michael C.
    ,
    Wandishin, Matthew S.
    DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222267.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast covering approximately three-fourths of the continental United States. Each member used the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model core, which was initialized at 2100 UTC, ran for 33 h, and resolved convection explicitly. Different initial condition (IC), lateral boundary condition (LBC), and physics perturbations were introduced in 4 of the 10 ensemble members, while the remaining 6 members used identical ICs and LBCs, differing only in terms of microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations. This study focuses on precipitation forecasts from the ensemble. The ensemble forecasts reveal WRF-ARW sensitivity to MP and PBL schemes. For example, over the 7-week experiment, the Mellor?Yamada?Janji? PBL and Ferrier MP parameterizations were associated with relatively high precipitation totals, while members configured with the Thompson MP or Yonsei University PBL scheme produced comparatively less precipitation. Additionally, different approaches for generating probabilistic ensemble guidance are explored. Specifically, a ?neighborhood? approach is described and shown to considerably enhance the skill of probabilistic forecasts for precipitation when combined with a traditional technique of producing ensemble probability fields.
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      Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4211462
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    contributor authorSchwartz, Craig S.
    contributor authorKain, John S.
    contributor authorWeiss, Steven J.
    contributor authorXue, Ming
    contributor authorBright, David R.
    contributor authorKong, Fanyou
    contributor authorThomas, Kevin W.
    contributor authorLevit, Jason J.
    contributor authorConiglio, Michael C.
    contributor authorWandishin, Matthew S.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:32:50Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:32:50Z
    date copyright2010/02/01
    date issued2010
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-69758.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4211462
    description abstractDuring the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast covering approximately three-fourths of the continental United States. Each member used the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model core, which was initialized at 2100 UTC, ran for 33 h, and resolved convection explicitly. Different initial condition (IC), lateral boundary condition (LBC), and physics perturbations were introduced in 4 of the 10 ensemble members, while the remaining 6 members used identical ICs and LBCs, differing only in terms of microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations. This study focuses on precipitation forecasts from the ensemble. The ensemble forecasts reveal WRF-ARW sensitivity to MP and PBL schemes. For example, over the 7-week experiment, the Mellor?Yamada?Janji? PBL and Ferrier MP parameterizations were associated with relatively high precipitation totals, while members configured with the Thompson MP or Yonsei University PBL scheme produced comparatively less precipitation. Additionally, different approaches for generating probabilistic ensemble guidance are explored. Specifically, a ?neighborhood? approach is described and shown to considerably enhance the skill of probabilistic forecasts for precipitation when combined with a traditional technique of producing ensemble probability fields.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleToward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume25
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/2009WAF2222267.1
    journal fristpage263
    journal lastpage280
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian