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RISFurther Analysis of Lorenz’s Maximum Simplification Equations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The goal of this paper is to provide a complete picture of the long-term behavior of Lorenz?s maximum simplification equations along with the corresponding meteorological interpretation for all initial conditions and all ...
Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and Event Frequency
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The sensitivity of various accuracy measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency is analyzed for a simple hypothetical forecasting situation. Each measure is found to be sensitive to displacement error and ...
Diagnosing the Sensitivity of Binary Image Measures to Bias, Location, and Event Frequency within a Forecast Verification Framework
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hile the use of binary distance measures has a substantial history in the field of image processing, these techniques have only recently been applied in the area of forecast verification. Designed to quantify the distance ...
The Impact of Climate Change on Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States: Insight from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis study explores the potential impact anthropogenic climate change may have upon hazardous convective weather (HCW; i.e., tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts) in the United States. Utilizing the Weather ...
The Geospatial and Temporal Distributions of Severe Thunderstorms from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: rends in severe thunderstorms and the associated phenomena of tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds have been difficult to determine because of the many uncertainties in the historical eyewitness-report-based record. The ...
The Behavior of Synoptic-Scale Errors in the Eta Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A previous study of the mean spatial bias errors associated with operational forecast models motivated an examination of the mechanisms responsible for these biases. One hypothesis for the cause of these errors is that ...
Assessment of Implementing Satellite-Derived Land Cover Data in the Eta Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: One of the challenges in land surface modeling involves specifying accurately the initial state of the land surface. Most efforts have focused upon using a multiyear climatology to specify the fractional coverage of ...
Implementation of the Cloud Prediction Scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An explicit cloud prediction scheme has been developed and incorporated into the Eta Model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to improve the cloud and precipitation forecasts. In this scheme, the ...
Parameterized Updraft Mass Flux as a Predictor of Convective Intensity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Parameterized updraft mass flux, available as a unique predictive field from the Kain?Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization, is presented as a potentially valuable predictor of convective intensity. The KF scheme is ...
Bowing Convective Systems in a Popular Operational Model: Are They for Real?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Bowing, propagating precipitation features that sometimes appear in NCEP's North American Mesoscale model (NAM; formerly called the Eta Model) forecasts are examined. These features are shown to be associated with an unusual ...