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The Atmospheric Response over the North Atlantic to Decadal Changes in Sea Surface Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Decadal fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic?European region may be influenced by interactions between the atmosphere and the Atlantic Ocean, possibly as part of a coupled ocean?atmosphere mode of variability. ...
Estimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in ...
How Predictability Depends on the Nature of Uncertainty in Initial Conditions in a Coupled Model of ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The predictability of any complex, inhomogeneous system depends critically on the definition of analysis and forecast errors. A simple and efficient singular vector analysis is used to study the predictability of a coupled ...
Constraints on Model Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Role of Subgrid-Scale Processes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A climate model emulator is developed using neural network techniques and trained with the data from the multithousand-member climateprediction.net perturbed physics GCM ensemble. The method recreates nonlinear interactions ...
A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided ...