YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    Estimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2007:;volume( 020 ):;issue: 005::page 843
    Author:
    Kettleborough, J. A.
    ,
    Booth, B. B. B.
    ,
    Stott, P. A.
    ,
    Allen, M. R.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4012.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming. These estimates are then projected forward in time using a linear, compact relationship between twentieth-century warming and twenty-first-century warming. This relationship is established from a large ensemble of energy balance models. By varying the energy balance model parameters an estimate is made of the error associated with using the linear relationship in forecasts of twentieth-century global mean temperature. Including this error has very little impact on the forecasts. There is a 50% chance that the global mean temperature change between 1995 and 2035 will be greater than 1.5 K for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1FI scenario. Under SRES B2 the same threshold is not exceeded until 2055. These results should be relatively robust to model developments for a given radiative forcing history.
    • Download: (904.8Kb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      Estimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4221148
    Collections
    • Journal of Climate

    Show full item record

    contributor authorKettleborough, J. A.
    contributor authorBooth, B. B. B.
    contributor authorStott, P. A.
    contributor authorAllen, M. R.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:02:44Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:02:44Z
    date copyright2007/03/01
    date issued2007
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-78475.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4221148
    description abstractA method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming. These estimates are then projected forward in time using a linear, compact relationship between twentieth-century warming and twenty-first-century warming. This relationship is established from a large ensemble of energy balance models. By varying the energy balance model parameters an estimate is made of the error associated with using the linear relationship in forecasts of twentieth-century global mean temperature. Including this error has very little impact on the forecasts. There is a 50% chance that the global mean temperature change between 1995 and 2035 will be greater than 1.5 K for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1FI scenario. Under SRES B2 the same threshold is not exceeded until 2055. These results should be relatively robust to model developments for a given radiative forcing history.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleEstimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume20
    journal issue5
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI4012.1
    journal fristpage843
    journal lastpage855
    treeJournal of Climate:;2007:;volume( 020 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian