Probabilistic Monitoring of Project Performance Using SS-Curves

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to develop a new concept of project control. This new concept uses stochastic S-curves (SS-Curves) as an alternative to using the deterministic S-curve technique commonly employed in professional practice. SS-curves are developed by determining the activity level variability in cost and duration. Simulation is the recommended approach for obtaining SS-curves, similar to the way that stochastic schedules are currently developed. SS-curves provide probability distributions for expected cost and duration for a given percentage of work completed. Monitoring project performance is performed by comparing the most likely budget and duration values, obtained from respective probability distributions for actual progress, with the project's actual data and cumulative cost. By using this method, an evaluation of actual project performance can be developed that appropriately considers the natural variability of construction costs and duration, rather than utilizing only one possible deterministic outcome. Given the probabilistic characteristics of SS-curves, additional benefits are presented that enable a more comprehensive project control methodology.