Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San-Francisco-Bay-Area Case Study

Abstract

Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning methods are ill-equipped to address deep uncertainties, as they rely on designing responses to a few predicted futures, none of which will occur exactly as envisioned. In this paper, we propose using dynamic adaptive planning (DAP), an emerging general strategic planning method, to account for deep uncertainties by building flexibility and learning mechanisms into plans that enable continuous adaptation throughout implementation. This paper first reviews uncertainty in general, introduces what is meant by