Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 901-920 of 3043
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The Effect of the Physical Parameterizations and the Land Surface on Rainfall in Poland
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)igh-resolution numerical experiments were conducted over two separate months to study the effect of different physical parameterizations and different representations of the land surface on the prediction of rainfall events ... -
Analysis of Missed Summer Severe Rainfall Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)espite considerable progress in mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP), the ability to predict summer severe rainfall (SSR) in terms of amount, location, and timing remains very limited because of its association ... -
Prediction of the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Event in a Multiphysics Multi-Initial-Conditions Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)rolonged heavy rainfall produced widespread flooding in the Oklahoma City area early on 14 June 2010. This event was poorly predicted by operational models; however, it was skillfully predicted by the Storm-Scale Ensemble ... -
Probabilistic Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective System Initiation Using the Random Forest Data Mining Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)data mining and statistical learning method known as a random forest (RF) is employed to generate 2-h forecasts of the likelihood for initiation of mesoscale convective systems (MCS-I). The RF technique uses an ensemble ... -
Analysis of Ice-to-Liquid Ratios during Freezing Rain and the Development of an Ice Accumulation Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ubstantial freezing rain or drizzle occurs in about 24% of winter weather events in the continental United States. Proper preparation for these freezing rain events requires accurate forecasts of ice accumulation on various ... -
Rapid-Scan, Polarimetric Observations of Central Oklahoma Severe Storms on 31 May 2013
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n 31 May 2013, a polarimetric WSR-88D located in Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), was used to collect sectorized volumetric observations in a tornadic supercell. Because only a fraction of the full azimuthal volume was observed, ... -
Maximum Wind Gusts Associated with Human-Reported Nonconvective Wind Events and a Comparison to Current Warning Issuance Criteria
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)onconvective high winds are a deceptively hazardous meteorological phenomenon. Though the National Weather Service (NWS) possesses an array of products designed to alert the public to nonconvective wind potential, documentation ... -
Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Part II: Combined Radar and Satellite Data Experiments
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his research represents the second part of a two-part series describing the development of a prototype ensemble data assimilation system for the Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project known as the NSSL Experimental WoF System for ... -
Using Reforecasts to Improve Forecasting of Fog and Visibility for Aviation
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ifteen years of forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s Second-Generation Global Medium-Range Ensemble Reforecast (GEFS/R) dataset were used to develop a statistical model that generates ... -
Revised Parameterization of Air–Sea Exchanges in High Winds for Operational Numerical Prediction: Impact on Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Rapid Intensification
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)n high-wind conditions, sea spray, in conjunction with a generally decreasing drag coefficient for increasing winds, greatly modulates surface heat and momentum fluxes. It has been suggested that the process can be ... -
NCAR’s Experimental Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his expository paper documents an experimental, real-time, 10-member, 3-km, convection-allowing ensemble prediction system (EPS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in spring 2015. The EPS is ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2015) -
Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave ... -
The POWER Experiment: Impact of Assimilation of a Network of Coastal Wind Profiling Radars on Simulating Offshore Winds in and above the Wind Turbine Layer
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)uring the summer of 2004 a network of 11 wind profiling radars (WPRs) was deployed in New England as part of the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Observations from this dataset are used to determine their impact on ... -
Synoptic and Mesoscale Environment of Convection during the North American Monsoon across Central and Southern Arizona
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his paper comprehensively analyzes the synoptic and mesoscale environment associated with North American monsoon?related thunderstorms affecting central and southern Arizona. Analyses of thunderstorm environments are ... -
Convection during the North American Monsoon across Central and Southern Arizona: Applications to Operational Meteorology
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his comprehensive analysis of convective environments associated with thunderstorms affecting portions of central and southern Arizona during the North American monsoon focuses on both observed soundings and mesoanalysis ... -
Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)evelopment of a 12-ft-seas significant wave height ensemble consistent with the official tropical cyclone intensity, track, and wind structure forecasts and their errors from the operational U.S. tropical cyclone forecast ... -
On the Impact of the Choice of Global Ensemble in Forcing a Regional Ensemble System
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)t is quite common that in a regional ensemble system the large-scale initial condition (IC) perturbations and the lateral boundary condition (LBC) perturbations are taken from a global ensemble prediction system (EPS). The ... -
Predicting Wind Power with Reforecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)nergy traders and decision-makers need accurate wind power forecasts. For this purpose, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are often statistically postprocessed to correct systematic errors. This requires a dataset of ... -
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using RVM and DADI Based on Infrared Brightness Temperature
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n objective technique is presented to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using the relevance vector machine (RVM) and deviation angle distribution inhomogeneity (DADI) based on infrared satellite images of the northwest ...