Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 881-900 of 3043
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A Climatology of Operational Storm-Based Warnings: A Geospatial Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study provides a quantitative climatological analysis of the fundamental geospatial components of storm-based warnings and offers insight into how the National Weather Service (NWS) uses the current storm-based warning ... -
WRF Forecasts of Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet-Driven MCSs. Part I: Correlation between Low-Level Jet Forecast Accuracy and MCS Precipitation Forecast Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) fosters an environment that supports nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) across the central United States during the summer months. The current study examines if LLJ forecast ... -
A Comparison of 36–60-h Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)revious studies examining convection-allowing models (CAMs), as well as NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs) have typically emphasized ?day 1? (12?36 h) forecast guidance. These studies find ... -
A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power over short periods of time ) it is more difficult to balance the electric load ... -
WRF Forecasts of Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet-Driven MCSs. Part II: Differences between Strongly and Weakly Forced Low-Level Jet Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he classic Great Plains southerly low-level jet (LLJ) is a primary factor in sustaining nocturnal convection. This study compares convection-allowing WRF forecasts of LLJ events associated with MCSs in strongly and weakly ... -
Bayesian Updating of Track-Forecast Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he accuracy of track forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) is well studied, but less attention has been paid to the representation of track-forecast uncertainty. Here, Bayesian updating is employed on the radius of the 70% ... -
Severe Weather Prediction Using Storm Surrogates from an Ensemble Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)robabilistic severe weather forecasts for days 1 and 2 were produced using 30-member convection-allowing ensemble forecasts initialized by an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system during a 32-day period coinciding ... -
Use of Geostationary Super Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery by the Storm Prediction Center
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-14 (GOES-14) Imager was operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in an experimental rapid scan 1-min mode during parts of 2012, 2013, 2014, ... -
The Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index: Methodology and Operational Implementation
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)anta Ana winds, common to Southern California from the fall through early spring, are a type of downslope windstorm originating from a direction generally ranging from 360°/0° to 100° and are usually accompanied by very ... -
Explicit Precipitation-Type Diagnosis from a Model Using a Mixed-Phase Bulk Cloud–Precipitation Microphysics Parameterization
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), both operational at NOAA?s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) use the Thompson et al. mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. This ... -
Evaluation of PBL Parameterizations for Modeling Surface Wind Speed during Storms in the Northeast United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study identifies conditions that determine errors in numerical simulations of 10-m wind speed over moderately complex terrain, emphasizing winds that lead to overhead power-line damage over a subregion of the northeast ... -
Evaluation of WRF Model Forecasts and Their Use for Hydroclimate Monitoring over Southern South America
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)eather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities ... -
Forecaster Evaluations of High Temporal Satellite Imagery for the GOES-R Era at the NWS Operations Proving Ground
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)etween February and April of 2015, the National Weather Service (NWS) Operations Proving Ground (OPG) facilitated an evaluation of the usefulness of 1-min satellite imagery for NWS operations in the Geostationary Operational ... -
Forecasting Tornadoes Using Convection-Permitting Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ourly maximum fields of simulated storm diagnostics from experimental versions of convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide valuable information regarding severe weather potential. While past studies have focused on ... -
Application of Two Spatial Verification Methods to Ensemble Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)wo spatial verification methods are applied to ensemble forecasts of low-level rotation in supercells: a four-dimensional, object-based matching algorithm and the displacement and amplitude score (DAS) based on optical ... -
Reexamining the United Kingdom’s Greatest Tornado Outbreak: Forecasting the Limited Extent of Tornadoes along a Cold Front
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n 23 November 1981, a strong cold front swept across the United Kingdom, producing tornadoes from the west to the east coasts. An extensive campaign to collect tornado reports by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation ... -
The Extreme Wind Events in the Ross Island Region of Antarctica
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)umerous incidents of structural damage at the U.S. Antarctic Program?s (USAP) McMurdo Station due to extreme wind events (EWEs) have been reported over the past decade. Utilizing nearly 20 yr (~1992?2013) of University of ... -
Reducing Operational Hurricane Intensity Forecast Errors during Eyewall Replacement Cycles
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)yewall replacement cycles (ERCs) are fairly common events in tropical cyclones (TCs) of hurricane intensity or greater and typically cause large and sometimes rapid changes in the intensity evolution of the TC. Although ... -
Weather Verification Papers Requested
(American Meteorological Society, 2015) -
Improving High-Impact Forecasts through Sensitivity-Based Ensemble Subsets: Demonstration and Initial Tests
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)nsemble sensitivity can reveal features in the flow at early forecast times that are relevant to the predictability of chosen high-impact forecast aspects (e.g., heavy precipitation) later in time. In an operational ...