Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 861-880 of 3043
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Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast Version 2
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast version 2 (1985?2012) were evaluated from the climate perspective, with a focus on tropical cyclogenesis. Although the GEFS ... -
WSR-88D Radar Data Processing at NCEP
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)eal-time access to level II radar data became available in May 2005 at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO). Using these real-time data in operational data assimilation requires ... -
The Challenge of Forecasting Significant Tornadoes from June to October Using Convective Parameters
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study is an application of the Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM), which objectively assesses conditional severe thunderstorm probabilities based on archived hourly mesoscale data across the ... -
The Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study introduces a system that objectively assesses severe thunderstorm nowcast probabilities based on hourly mesoscale data across the contiguous United States during the period from 2006 to 2014. Previous studies ... -
Kinematic and Microphysical Significance of Lightning Jumps versus Nonjump Increases in Total Flash Rate
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)hirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric, and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed-phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This ... -
Synoptic Pattern Analysis and Climatology of Ice and Snowstorms in the Southern Great Plains, 1993–2011
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)inter storms in the southern United States can significantly impact infrastructure and the economy. In this study, National Centers for Environmental Information Storm Event Database and local climate summaries, are used ... -
Observing System Experiments in a 3DVAR Data Assimilation System at CPTEC/INPE
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)he Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies [Centro de Previs?o e Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)] at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)] has ... -
A New Forecast Model Based on the Analog Method for Persistent Extreme Precipitation
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study aims to establish an analog prediction model for forecasting daily persistent extreme precipitation (PEP) during a PEP event (PEPE) using the temporal sequences of predictors with different weights applied in the ... -
NAQFC Developmental Forecast Guidance for Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) upgraded its modeling system that provides developmental numerical predictions of particulate matter smaller than 2.5 ?m in diameter (PM2.5) in January 2015. The ... -
Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma Tornado and Flash Flood Event Using a Continuous-Update-Cycle Storm-Scale Ensemble System
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)continuous-update-cycle storm-scale ensemble data assimilation (DA) and prediction system using the ARW model and DART software is used to generate retrospective 0?6-h ensemble forecasts of the 31 May 2013 tornado and flash ... -
Objective Airport Warnings over Small Areas Using NLDN Cloud and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ightning can have a significant impact on ground-crew and other operations at airports, resulting in a cascade of delays beyond the immediate locations. Measures of these impacts have not been presented previously in a ... -
Sensitivity of Calibrated Week-2 Probabilistic Forecast Skill to Reforecast Sampling of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)PC requires the reforecast-calibrated Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to support the production of their official 6?10- and 8?14-day temperature and precipitation forecasts. While a large sample size of forecast?observation ... -
The Origin of Western European Warm-Season Prefrontal Convergence Lines
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he authors investigate the origin of prefrontal, warm-season convergence lines over western Europe using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. These lines form east of the cold front in the warm sector of an extratropical ... -
A Comparison of ASOS Near-Surface Winds and WSR-88D-Derived Wind Speed Profiles Measured in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)set of velocity?azimuth display (VAD) wind speed profiles derived from coastal Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) systems was paired with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) 10-m standardized mean and ... -
Prediction and Ensemble Forecast Verification of Hail in the Supercell Storms of 20 May 2013
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)espite recent advances in storm-scale ensemble NWP, short-term (0?90 min) explicit forecasts of severe hail remain a major challenge as a result of the fast evolution and short time scales of hail-producing convective ... -
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting in Southern Brazil Using Multiple Discriminant Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)multiple discriminant analysis was employed to forecast monthly and seasonal rainfall in southern Brazil. The methodology used includes six steps: data acquisition, preprocessing, feature extraction, feature selection, ... -
Impact of Assimilating Wind Profiling Radar Observations on Convection-Permitting Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts during SCMREX
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)o improve the prediction of heavy rainfall in southern China during the prerainy season, horizontal wind data from wind profiling radars (WPRs) were assimilated in the partial-cycle data assimilation (DA) system based on ... -
An Examination of Model and Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Size Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)hile the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been issuing analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone wind radii for several years, little documentation has been provided about the errors in these forecasts. A key hurdle ... -
Verification of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models: Comparisons between the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ccurately forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is an important operational need, especially since the National Hurricane Center?s Tropical Weather Outlook product has been extended from 2 to 5 days. A previous study ... -
An Object-Based Forecast Verification Tool for Synoptic-Scale Rossby Waveguides
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n accurate representation of synoptic-scale Rossby waves in numerical weather forecast models is very important as these waves are closely linked to weather formation at the surface. Enhanced potential vorticity (PV) ...