Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 841-860 of 3043
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Ensemble Prediction with Different Spatial Resolutions for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games: The Effects of Calibration and Multimodel Approaches
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)hree ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with different grid spacings are compared and evaluated with respect to their ability to predict wintertime weather in complex terrain. The experiment period was two-and-a-half winter ... -
Investigation of Near-Storm Environments for Tornado Events and Warnings
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n this study, a 13-yr climatology of tornado event and warning environments, including metrics of tornado intensity and storm morphology, is investigated with particular focus on the environments of tornadoes associated ... -
Sensitivity of Numerical Weather Forecasts to Initial Soil Moisture Variations in CFSv2
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)hen initial soil moisture is perturbed among ensemble members in the operational NWS global forecast model, surface latent and sensible fluxes are immediately affected much more strongly, systematically, and over a greater ... -
Design Strategies of an Hourly Update 3DVAR Data Assimilation System for Improved Convective Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study examines two strategies for improving the analysis of an hourly update three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system and the subsequent quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The first strategy ... -
The Influence of Topography on Convective Storm Environments in the Eastern United States as Deduced from the HRRR
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)elatively little is known about how topography affects convective storms. The first step toward understanding these effects is to investigate how topography affects storm environments. Unfortunately, the effects of topography ... -
Nowcasting with Data Assimilation: A Case of Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)pace?time extrapolation is a key technique in precipitation nowcasting. Motions of patterns are estimated using two or more consecutive images, and the patterns are extrapolated in space and time to obtain their future ... -
Met Office Unified Model Tropical Cyclone Performance Following Major Changes to the Initialization Scheme and a Model Upgrade
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he Met Office has used various schemes to initialize tropical cyclones (TCs) in its numerical weather prediction models since the 1980s. The scheme introduced in 1994 was particularly successful in reducing track forecast ... -
Diurnal Variations in Severe Weather Forecast Parameters of Rapid Update Cycle-2 Tornado Proximity Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)octurnal tornadoes are disproportionately dangerous compared with their daytime counterparts; thus, it is imperative to improve the forecasting of these tornadoes. This study uses a large (194 cases) and geographically ... -
The Usefulness and Economic Value of Total Lightning Forecasts Made with a Dynamic Lightning Scheme Coupled with Lightning Data Assimilation
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)otal lightning probability forecasts for 26 mostly springtime days and 27 summertime days were analyzed for their usefulness and economic value. The mostly springtime forecast days had a relatively high number of severe ... -
The Pan-Canadian High Resolution (2.5 km) Deterministic Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ince November 2014, the Meteorological Services of Canada (MSC) has been running a real-time numerical weather prediction system that provides deterministic forecasts on a regional domain with a 2.5-km horizontal grid ... -
Defining the Influence of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Ensemble Uncertainty within a Regional Modeling Framework
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)umerical weather prediction (NWP) models are limited with respect to initial and boundary condition data and possess an incomplete description of underlying physical processes. To account for this, modelers have adopted ... -
Observing Boundary-Layer Winds from Hot-Air Balloon Flights
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)igh-resolution upper-air wind observations are sparse, and additional observations are a welcome source of meteorological information. In this paper the potential of applying balloon flights for upper-air wind measurements ... -
Diagnosis of the Source and Evolution of Medium-Range Forecast Errors for Extratropical Cyclone Joachim
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)edium-range forecasts for Cyclone Joachim, an extratropical cyclone that impacted western Europe on 16 December 2011, consistently predicted a high-impact intense cyclone; however, these forecasts failed to verify. The ... -
An Evaluation of QPF from the WRF, NAM, and GFS Models Using Multiple Verification Methods over a Small Domain
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he ARW model was run over a small domain centered on Iowa for 9 months with 4-km grid spacing to better understand the limits of predictability of short-term (12 h) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) that might ... -
Meteorological Monographs and Special Collections
(American Meteorological Society, 2016) -
An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Induced Wind Gust Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study provides a quantitative forecast method for predicting the potential maximum wind gust at certain automatic weather stations (AWSs) in South China through the investigation of the relationship between the wind ... -
Summertime Rainfall Events in Eastern Washington and Oregon
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he temporal and spatial characteristics of summertime rainfall events in the Pacific Northwest are examined in relation to the prevailing regional 500-hPa geopotential height conditions, with focus on the forested slopes ... -
Polarimetric Radar Observations of Precipitation Type and Rate from the 2–3 March 2014 Winter Storm in Oklahoma and Arkansas
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)powerful winter storm affected the south-central United States in early March 2014, accompanied by elevated convective cells with hail and high rates of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. During portions of the event the ... -
Methods for Improving the Prediction Skill of Summer Precipitation over East Asia–West Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he performance of summer precipitation prediction skill of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1; hereafter CSM) over the East Asia?west Pacific (EA?WP) region indicates the need for further development ... -
A Statistical Analysis of Steady Eyewall Sizes Associated with Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)t is well known that hurricane intensification is often accompanied by continuous contraction of the radius of maximum wind (RMW) and eyewall size. However, a few recent studies have shown rapid and then slow contraction ...