Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 821-840 of 3043
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A Self-Organizing-Map-Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ccurate representation of the stability of the surface layer in numerical weather prediction models is important because of the impact it has on forecasts of surface energy, moisture, and momentum fluxes. It also impacts ... -
Comments on “A Comparison of Temperature and Wind Measurements from ACARS-Equipped Aircraft and Rawinsondes”
(American Meteorological Society, 2016) -
Comparing Impacts of Satellite Data Assimilation and Lateral Boundary Conditions on Regional Model Forecasting: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy (2012)
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he impacts of both satellite data assimilation (DA) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model forecasts of Hurricane Sandy 2012 were assessed. To investigate the ... -
Subseasonal Prediction of Significant Wave Heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he bias and skill of multi-week predictions of significant wave height (SWH) in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean (WP?IO) region are investigated. The WaveWatch III (WW3) model is forced with daily 10-m winds from the ... -
A Multiple-Model Convection-Permitting Ensemble Examination of the Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclones: Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Edouard (2014)
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)his study examines a multimodel comparison of regional-scale convection-permitting ensembles including both physics and initial condition uncertainties for the probabilistic prediction of Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Edouard ... -
The Development and Evaluation of a Statistical–Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance Tool
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he National Hurricane Center (NHC) has stated that guidance on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is an operational forecast improvement need, particularly since numerical weather prediction models produce TC-like features and ... -
The Uncertainty of Precipitation-Type Observations and Its Effect on the Validation of Forecast Precipitation Type
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)erein, an evaluation of the uncertainty of precipitation-type observations and its effect on the validation of forecast precipitation type is undertaken. The forms of uncertainty are instrument/observer bias and ... -
Viability of Cloud Computing for Real-Time Numerical Weather Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)s cloud-service providers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft decrease costs and increase performance, numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the cloud will become a reality not only for research use but for real-time use ... -
The Impact of Vertical Resolution on Fog Forecasting in the Kilometric-Scale Model AROME: A Case Study and Statistics
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he impact of vertical resolution on numerical fog forecasting is studied in detail for a specific case and evaluated statistically over a winter season. Three vertical resolutions are tested with the kilometric-scale ... -
Explicit Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation from Convection-Allowing Models for Next-Day Tornado Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)hree diagnostic fields were examined to assess their ability to act as surrogates for tornadoes in a convection-allowing ensemble system run during the spring of 2015. The diagnostics included midlevel (2?5 km AGL) updraft ... -
Comments on “Incorporating the Effects of Moisture into a Dynamical Parameter: Moist Vorticity and Moist Divergence”
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n a recent article, Qian et al. introduced the quantities moist vorticity and moist divergence to diagnose locations of heavy rain. These quantities are constructed by multiplying the relative vorticity and divergence by ... -
Forecast Variability of the Blocking System over Russia in Summer 2010 and Its Impact on Surface Conditions
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he Euro?Russian atmospheric blocking pattern in the summer of 2010 was related to high-impact weather, including a mega?heat wave in Russia. A set of scenarios for the synoptic evolution during the onset, mature stage, and ... -
Structure and Motion of Severe-Wind-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems and Derechos in Relation to the Mean Wind
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)he goal of this study is to document differences in the convective structure and motion of long-track, severe-wind-producing MCSs from short-track severe-wind-producing MCSs in relation to the mean wind. An ancillary goal ... -
Effect of Enhanced Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Numerical Weather Prediction in East Asia Using an Adjoint-Based Observation Impact Method
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)hen producing forecasts by integrating a numerical weather prediction model from an analysis, not all observations assimilated into the analysis improve the forecast. Therefore, the impact of particular observations on the ... -
The Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM): Performance for Tropical Rainfall Forecasting and Sensitivity to Convective Scheme and Horizontal Resolution
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his article describes the main features of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM), analyses of its performance for tropical rainfall forecasting, and its sensitivity to convective scheme and horizontal resolution. ... -
The Use of the Deviation Angle Variance Technique on Geostationary Satellite Imagery to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Size Parameters
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study extends past research based on the deviation angle variance (DAV) technique that utilizes digital brightness temperatures from longwave infrared satellite images to objectively measure the symmetry of a tropical ... -
Topographic Influence on the Motion of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coast of China
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)few recent numerical studies investigated the influence of a continent, which is much larger in size than islands, on the track of a landfalling tropical cyclone. It has been found that land surface roughness and temperature ... -
Regional Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation Using Global Ensemble Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)t the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the global ensemble forecasts from the ensemble Kalman filter scheme in the Global Forecast System are applied in a regional three-dimensional (3D) and a four dimensional ... -
Evaluation and Error Analysis of Official Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2005–14 over the Western North Pacific. Part I: Storm Tracks
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)fficial forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks issued by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA); the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Tokyo, Japan; and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) were ... -
Improved Gridded Wind Speed Forecasts by Statistical Postprocessing of Numerical Models with Block Regression
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)umerical weather forecast errors are routinely corrected through statistical postprocessing by several national weather services. These statistical postprocessing methods build a regression function called model output ...