Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 801-820 of 3043
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Improving NOAA NAQFC PM2.5 Predictions with a Bias Correction Approach
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)articulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 ?m (PM2.5) is a critical air pollutant with important impacts on human health. It is essential to provide accurate air quality forecasts to alert ... -
WRF Hub-Height Wind Forecast Sensitivity to PBL Scheme, Grid Length, and Initial Condition Choice in Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)his study evaluates the sensitivity of wind turbine hub-height wind speed forecasts to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, grid length, and initial condition selection in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ... -
Comments on “Double Impact: When Both Tornadoes and Flash Floods Threaten the Same Place at the Same Time”
(American Meteorological Society, 2016) -
Verifying Supercellular Rotation in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting System with Radar-Derived Rotation Track Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)he utility of radar-derived rotation track data for the verification of supercell thunderstorm forecasts was quantified through this study. The forecasts were generated using a convection-permitting model ensemble, and ... -
Reply to “Comments on ‘Incorporating the Effects of Moisture into a Dynamical Parameter: Moist Vorticity and Moist Divergence’”
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)athematical derivation, meteorological justification, and comparison to model direct precipitation forecasts are the three main concerns recently raised by Schultz and Spengler about moist divergence (MD) and moist vorticity ... -
Estimating Enhanced Fujita Scale Levels Based on Forest Damage Severity
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)nhanced Fujita (EF) scale estimates following tornadoes remain challenging in rural areas with few traditional damage indicators. In some cases, such as the 27 April 2011 tornadoes that passed through mostly inaccessible ... -
A Technique for Verification of Convection-Permitting NWP Model Deterministic Forecasts of Lightning Activity
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his manuscript introduces a new technique for evaluating lightning forecasts from convection-permitting models. In recent years, numerical weather prediction models at the convection-permitting scales (horizontal grid ... -
Radar Observations of Tornado-Warned Convection Associated with Tropical Cyclones over Florida
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)tatistical evaluations of tornado warnings issued during recent tropical cyclone events yielded an above-average false alarm ratio. This study analyzed tornado-warned convection associated with Tropical Storms Debby (2012) ... -
A Comparison of Perturbations from an Ensemble Transform and an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)wo perturbation generation schemes, the ensemble transformation with rescaling (ETR) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are compared for the NCEP operational environment for the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). ... -
Modeling the Evolution and Life Cycle of Stable Cold Pools
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)table cold pools in California?s Central Valley (CV) are conducive to freezing temperatures, high relative humidity, and, in some cases, fog. In this study it will be shown that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ... -
Five-year climatology of severe convective wind events over China
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)method using cloud-to-ground lightning was developed to retrieve severe convective wind (SCW) events from Significant Weather Report data over China during the period of 2010?2014. The results showed that SCW events were ... -
Design and Implementation of a GSI-Based Convection-Allowing Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast System for the PECAN Field Experiment. Part I: Optimal Configurations for Nocturnal Convection Prediction Using Retrospective Cases
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)real-time GSI-based and ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) and forecast system was implemented at the University of Oklahoma during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) experiment. Extensive experiments ... -
An Attempt to Improve the Forecasting of Persistent Severe Rainfall Using the Spectral Nudging and Update Cycle Methods
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)sing the interior spectral nudging and update cycle (SN+UIC) methods in the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, the numerical predictions of four persistent severe rainfall (PSR) events during the preflood ... -
Methods for Comparing Simulated and Observed Satellite Infrared Brightness Temperatures and What Do They Tell Us?
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n this study, the utility of dimensioned, neighborhood-based, and object-based forecast verification metrics for cloud verification is assessed using output from the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRx) model ... -
Eastern U.S. Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he quality of ensemble precipitation forecasts across the eastern United States is investigated, specifically, version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast ... -
Tropical Cyclone Center Positions from Sequences of HDSS Sondes Deployed along High-Altitude Overpasses
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)method is developed to calculate the zero-wind center (ZWC) position from a sequence of Yankee High Density Sounding System (HDSS) dropwindsondes deployed during a high-altitude overpass of a tropical cyclone. The approach ... -
Extreme Precipitation in Models: An Evaluation
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)continental United States (CONUS)-wide framework for analyzing quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from NWP models from the perspective of precipitation return period (RP) exceedances is introduced using threshold ... -
AROME-MetCoOp: A Nordic Convective-Scale Operational Weather Prediction Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)ince October 2013 a convective-scale weather prediction model has been used operationally to provide short-term forecasts covering large parts of the Nordic region. The model is now operated by a bilateral cooperative ... -
Representing Multiple Scales in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Modeling System: Design of Multiple Sets of Movable Multilevel Nesting and the Basin-Scale HWRF Forecast Application
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n this study, the design of movable multilevel nesting (MMLN) in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) modeling system is documented. The configuration of a new experimental HWRF system with a much larger ... -
Composite Environments of Severe and Nonsevere High-Shear, Low-CAPE Convective Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)evere convection occurring in environments characterized by large amounts of vertical wind shear and limited instability (high-shear, low-CAPE, or ?HSLC,? environments) represents a considerable forecasting and nowcasting ...