Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 781-800 of 3043
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Extreme Rainstorms that Caused Devastating Flooding across the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia during November and December 2014
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)uring the early boreal winter (northeast) monsoon (November?December), cold air frequently bursts out from intense Siberian highs toward the Chinese coast in response to the development and movement of a 500-hPa trough. ... -
Forecaster Performance and Workload: Does Radar Update Time Matter?
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)mpacts of radar update time on forecasters? warning decision processes were analyzed in the 2015 Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment. Thirty National Weather Service forecasters worked nine archived phased-array ... -
Distribution of Single-Banded Snowfall in Central U.S. Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)climatology of single-banded snowfall in the central United States and the variability of processes at work in its formation are presented. Ninety-eight snowbands are identified in association with 66 cyclones over 5 yr ... -
The Dynamics of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northeastern Vietnam in 2015 and Its Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)record-breaking rainfall event occurred in northeastern Vietnam in late July?early August 2015. The coastal region in Quang Ninh Province was hit severely, with station rainfall sums in the range of 1000?1500 mm. The heavy ... -
Forecast Advisory for a Cold-Season Heavy Rainfall/Flood Event That Developed from Multiple Interactions of the Cold-Surge Vortex with Cold-Surge Flows in the South China Sea
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)he peak intensity occurrence frequency over the life cycles of parent cold-surge vortices (CSVs) for heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events is classified into two types depending on their life cycles having two or three peak ... -
Reply to “Comments on ‘Double Impact: When Both Tornadoes and Flash Floods Threaten the Same Place at the Same Time’”
(American Meteorological Society, 2016) -
A High-Resolution Aerial Survey and Radar Analysis of Quasi-Linear Convective System Surface Vortex Damage Paths from 31 August 2014
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n the evening of 31 August 2014, a powerful quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) impacted much of Iowa. In the weeks following the event, the entire path of the QLCS was imaged at ~1-m resolution using aerial photography ... -
Assessing the Skill of Updated Precipitation-Type Diagnostics for the Rapid Refresh with mPING
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)revious work has shown that the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model severely underrepresents ice pellets in its grid, with a skill near zero and a very low bias. An ice pellet diagnostic upgrade was devised at the Earth System ... -
Evaluating Smartphone Pressure Observations for Mesoscale Analyses and Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)martphone pressure observations have the potential to greatly increase surface observation density on convection-resolving scales. Currently available smartphone pressure observations are tested through assimilation in a ... -
Calibrated Probabilistic Hub-Height Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)his work evaluates the use of a WRF ensemble for short-term, probabilistic, hub-height wind speed forecasts in complex terrain. Testing for probabilistic-forecast improvements is conducted by increasing the number of ... -
Rapid Evolution of Cool Season, Low-CAPE Severe Thunderstorm Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)ow-CAPE (i.e., CAPE ≤ 1000 J kg?1) severe thunderstorms are common in the greater southeastern United States (including the Tennessee and Ohio valleys). These events are often poorly forecasted, and the environments in ... -
Statistical Forecast Model for Ice-Related Events in the Arctic
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)his paper presents a statistical ice event forecast model for the Arctic based on Fourier transforms and a mathematical filter. The results indicate that this model compares very well with both a multiple regression model ... -
A New Characterization within the Spatial Verification Framework for False Alarms, Misses, and Overall Patterns
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his paper proposes new diagnostic plots that take advantage of the lack of symmetry in the mean-error distance measure (MED) for binary images to yield a new concept of false alarms and misses appropriate to the spatial ... -
Simple Statistical Probabilistic Forecasts of the winter NAO
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)he variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation is a key aspect of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and has a profound impact upon the weather of the surrounding land masses. Recent success with dynamical ... -
A Numerical Weather Model’s Ability to Predict Characteristics of Aircraft Icing Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ecent advances in high-performance computing have enabled higher-resolution numerical weather models with increasingly complex data assimilation and more accurate physical parameterizations. With respect to aircraft and ... -
Development of Verification Methodology for Extreme Weather Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n 2006, the statistical postprocessing of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) was implemented to enhance ... -
An Assessment of the Performance of the Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems in Predicting the Forecast Uncertainty
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)his study investigates the efficiency of the major operational global ensemble forecast systems of the world in capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of the forecast uncertainty. Using data from 2015, it updates the results ... -
A LAMP–HRRR MELD for Improved Aviation Guidance
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ocalized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) forecasts of ceiling height, visibility, wind, and other weather elements of interest to the aviation community have been produced and put into the National Digital Guidance Database ... -
Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling of North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts over the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he skill of two statistical downscaled seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) was evaluated across the western United States at spatial scales relevant to local ... -
The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n ordinary regression of predicted versus observed probabilities is presented as a direct and simple procedure for minimizing the Brier score (BS) and improving the attributes diagram. The main example applies to seasonal ...