Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 761-780 of 3043
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(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractNCAR?s AutoNowCaster (ANC) was modified to run over a large domain that encompasses the air traffic management hubs of Chicago, Illinois; New York City, New York; and Atlanta, Georgia. ANC produces nowcasts of ... -
Comparison of the Analyses and Forecasts of a Tornadic Supercell Storm from Assimilating Phased-Array Radar and WSR-88D Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractNOAA?s National Severe Storms Laboratory is actively developing phased-array radar (PAR) technology, a potential next-generation weather radar, to replace the current operational WSR-88D radars. One unique feature ... -
Determining Criteria for Missed Events to Evaluate Significant Severe Convective Outlooks
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractAmong the Storm Prediction Center?s (SPC) probabilistic convective outlook products are forecasts specifically targeted at significant severe weather: tornadoes that produce EF2 or greater damage, wind gusts of at ... -
Generation of High-Resolution Wind Fields from the WegenerNet Dense Meteorological Station Network in Southeastern Austria
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractAn operational weather diagnostics application for automatic generation of wind fields in near?real time from observations delivered by the high-density WegenerNet meteorological station network in the Feldbach ... -
Performance of Basin-Scale HWRF Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model is a dynamical model that has shown annual improvements in its tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts as a result of various modifications. This study ... -
Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractHigh-quality road condition forecasts are a prerequisite for road authorities to ensure wintertime road safety. Harsh winter conditions can cause problems for traffic not only in countries where snowy winters are ... -
Multiscale Upstream and In Situ Precursors to the Elevated Mixed Layer and High-Impact Weather over the Midwest United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractTwo severe MCSs over the upper Midwest United States resulted in >100 mm of rain in a ~24-h period and >200 severe weather reports, respectively, during 30 June?2 July 2011. This period also featured 100 (104) daily ... -
Assessing the Ensemble Predictability of Precipitation Forecasts for the January 2015 and 2016 East Coast Winter Storms
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe ensemble predictability of the January 2015 and 2016 East Coast winter storms is assessed, with model precipitation forecasts verified against observational datasets. Skill scores and reliability diagrams ... -
Applying Fuzzy Clustering to a Multimodel Ensemble for U.S. East Coast Winter Storms: Scenario Identification and Forecast Verification
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis article introduces a method for objectively separating and validating forecast scenarios within a large multimodel ensemble for the medium-range (3?7 day) forecasts of extratropical cyclones impacting the U.S. ... -
Journals Embargo Period Reduced to One Year
(American Meteorological Society, 2016) -
High-Resolution Hail Observations: Implications for NWS Warning Operations
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)field research campaign, the Hail Spatial and Temporal Observing Network Effort (HailSTONE), was designed to obtain physical high-resolution hail measurements at the ground associated with convective storms to help address ... -
Nowcasting Foehn Wind Events Using the AdaBoost Machine Learning Algorithm
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)he south foehn is a characteristic downslope windstorm in the valleys of the northern Alps in Europe that demands reliable forecasts because of its substantial economic and societal impacts. Traditionally, a foehn is ... -
Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)n Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe linearly organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale ... -
Verification of 24-hour quantitative precipitation forecasts over the Pacific Northwest from a high-resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter system
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)nvironment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has recently developed an experimental High Resolution EnKF (HREnKF) regional ensemble prediction system, which it tested over the Pacific Northwest of North America for the first ... -
A Comparison of Methods Used to Populate Neighborhood-Based Contingency Tables for High-Resolution Forecast Verification
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)s high-resolution numerical weather prediction models are now commonplace, ?neighborhood? verification metrics are regularly employed to evaluate forecast quality. These neighborhood approaches relax the requirement that ... -
Impact of the Summer Monsoon Westerlies on the South China Sea Tropical Cyclone Genesis in May
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)fter the onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon in mid-May, the South China Sea (SCS) trough is deepened by the intensified monsoon westerlies to facilitate the development of a synoptic cyclonic shear flow. This shear ... -
Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)he extension of the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) prediction technique for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) from 5 to 7 days revealed a need for two modifications. The first modification for the 7-day WAIA was ... -
Examination of Mixed-Phase Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Using Surface Observations and Sounding Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)ccurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging for numerical weather prediction models even at high resolution and with a sophisticated explicit microphysics scheme and diagnostic algorithm to designate ... -
A Global Statistical–Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Forecast Scheme
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)orecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) surface wind structure have recently begun to show some skill, but the number of reliable forecast tools, mostly regional hurricane and select global models, remains limited. To provide ... -
GEFS Precipitation Forecasts and the Implications of Statistical Downscaling over the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)ontemporary operational medium-range ensemble modeling systems produce quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) that provide guidance for weather forecasters, yet lack sufficient resolution to adequately resolve orographic ...