Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 741-760 of 3043
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Further Evaluation of Probabilistic Convective Precipitation Forecasts Using the QPF–PoP Neighborhood Relationship
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractA neighborhood postprocessing approach that relates quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) to probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts applied to a single model run was found by Schaffer et al. to be as ... -
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(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) forecasting scheme uses various large-scale meteorological parameters as well as proxies for initial condition uncertainty and atmospheric flow stability to provide ... -
Numerical Simulations of a Tornadic Supercell over the Mediterranean
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractOn 28 November 2012, a multivortex EF3 tornado occurred in southeastern Italy causing one fatality and estimated damage of 60 million euros. At approximately 1050 LT (0950 UTC), this tornado, which initially formed ... -
Nowcast Guidance of Afternoon Convection Initiation for Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractFocusing on afternoon thunderstorms in Taiwan during the warm season (May?October) under weak synoptic forcing, this study applied the Taiwan Auto-NowCaster (TANC) to produce 1-h likelihood nowcasts of afternoon ... -
Impact of Storm Size on Prediction of Storm Track and Intensity Using the 2016 Operational GFDL Hurricane Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe impact of storm size on the forecast of tropical cyclone storm track and intensity is investigated using the 2016 version of the operational GFDL hurricane model. Evaluation was made for 1529 forecasts in the ... -
Pristine Nocturnal Convective Initiation: A Climatology and Preliminary Examination of Predictability
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe prediction of convective initiation remains a challenge to forecasters in the Great Plains, especially for elevated events at night. This study examines a subset of 287 likely elevated nocturnal convective ... -
Analysis of National Weather Service Stage Forecast Errors
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis paper explores the skill of river stage forecasts produced by the National Weather Service (NWS). Despite the importance of the verification process in establishing a reference that allows advancement in river ... -
Using the Second-Generation GEFS Reforecasts to Predict Ceiling, Visibility, and Aviation Flight Category
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis study is an aviation-based application of NOAA?s second-generation medium-range Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R; i.e., hindcast or retrospective forecast) dataset. The study produced a ... -
Sensitivity Analysis of Hurricane Arthur (2014) Storm Surge Forecasts to WRF Physics Parameterizations and Model Configurations
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThrough a case study of Hurricane Arthur (2014), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) are used to investigate the sensitivity of storm surge forecasts ... -
Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates for the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe Joint Typhoon Warning Center?s (JTWC) forecast improvement goals include reducing 34-kt (1 kt = 0.514 m s?1) wind radii forecast errors, so accurate real-time estimates and postseason analysis of the 34-kt wind ... -
Generation of Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractMethods for generating ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles based on a simple average of all members at each grid point can have limited utility because of amplitude ... -
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(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractGiven increasing computing power, an important question is whether additional computational resources would be better spent reducing the horizontal grid spacing of a convection-allowing model (CAM) or adding members ... -
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(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractAutomated aircraft observations of wind and temperature have demonstrated positive impact on numerical weather prediction since the mid-1980s. With the advent of the Water Vapor Sensing System (WVSS-II) humidity ... -
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(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractMultiscale ensemble-based data assimilation and forecasts were performed in real time during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field experiment. A 20-member ensemble of forecasts at 4-km grid spacing ... -
Subseasonal Dynamical Prediction of East Asian Cold Surges
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractPredictability of East Asian cold surges is studied using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Prediction skills of the CFSv2 in forecasting ... -
Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeast U.S. Cold Season Severe Thunderstorm Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractSoutheast U.S. cold season severe weather events can be difficult to predict because of the marginality of the supporting thermodynamic instability in this regime. The sensitivity of this environment to prognoses ... -
Breaking New Ground in Severe Weather Prediction: The 2015 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractLed by NOAA?s Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory, annual spring forecasting experiments (SFEs) in the Hazardous Weather Testbed test and evaluate cutting-edge technologies and concepts ... -
Impact of Assimilating Underwater Glider Data on Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe initialization of ocean conditions is essential to coupled tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. This study investigates the impact of ocean observation assimilation, particularly underwater glider data, on ... -
An Evaluation of WRF Rainfall Forecasts in Taiwan during Three Mei-Yu Seasons from 2008 to 2010
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) across Taiwan during three mei-yu seasons between 2008 and 2010 is evaluated using observations ... -
Ensemble versus Deterministic Performance at the Kilometer Scale
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractWhat is the benefit of a near-convection-resolving ensemble over a near-convection-resolving deterministic forecast? In this paper, a way in which ensemble and deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems ...